Ukraine must be given a clear path to joining NATO, says in his interview with “Vima” the Jan Brzezinskisenior fellow at The Atlantic Council, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (chairing George W. Bush) and son of Zbigniew Brzezinski (who as Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor inspired the funding of the Afghan Mujahideen after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979). The American expert on international relations and security, who will participate in the 9th Delphi Economic Forum (April 10-13), also talks about the future of transatlantic relations if the re-election Donald Trumpfor NATO and for Turkey.
Is Russia more aggressive and confident in the war in Ukraine today?
“Russian President Putin has not changed his goals and is more confident. Seeks subjugation of Ukraine and reconstitution of the Soviet Union. He shows no willingness to negotiate to end the war, except on his own terms. It is worrying, but the Ukrainians have proven that they have tenacity, courage and are determined to win if given the necessary equipment. The outcome of the conflict lies in the hands of the West. There are five things that need to be done quickly. First, to adopt Ukraine’s goals, which is to restore the 1991 borders. Anything less sends a negative message to the Ukrainians and allows Russia to continue to be aggressive. Second, we must give them the weapons they need to win decisively and quickly. Third, to strengthen sanctions against Russia. The IMF forecasts 2.3%-2.5% growth in Russia this year. There are European countries that continue to buy Russian natural gas. The Russian economy must be isolated to prevent Putin’s ability to produce weapons. Fourth, to engage more with the Russian people, to learn the truth about what Putin is doing to their neighbors and to themselves. Fifth, to give Ukraine a clear path to NATO membership, which should become part of the strategy of victory and the strategy to ensure peace afterwards. Article 5 is the only one Putin respects. It must be done immediately, especially as we approach the milestone of 75 years of NATO.”
However, there is no apparent will for Ukraine to join NATO.
“If Ukraine is in a stalemate or, even worse, losing, it means that the Alliance with a total GDP of 45 trillion dollars and a combined defense budget of 1.2 trillion. dollars is unable to crush an opponent with a GDP 1/25th that of NATO countries and a defense budget around 1/10 of NATO members. It must be made clear that NATO is willing to combine its geopolitical, economic and military advantages against Russia. The future of NATO is irreversibly linked to the future of Ukraine. At the NATO Summit in Vilnius, two countries were pushing to invite Ukraine to join NATO, the US and Germany. It is less risky to give the invitation today compared to 4-5 years later, because Russia will then be more dangerous and more powerful and the risk of escalation will be greater. Today Russia is weak. The invitation to join can be accompanied by the condition that Article 5 will apply only to the territories currently controlled by Ukraine and it can be made clear that no attack will be made against Russia. Putin does not want to attack NATO, he is weak. The US is worried about an escalation of the war. Their goal is to de-escalate, not to help Ukraine win the war. That’s why they are late in delivering equipment, giving Russia valuable time.”
What does the Russian intention to create a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in Space indicate?
“It shows that Russia is weak and irritated. The aim is to destroy the NATO satellite system that gives critical military information to the Ukrainians. It would be irresponsible, violate the International Outer Space Treaty, and be extremely destructive to the global economy. The resulting space ‘junk’ would travel at tremendous speed destroying other satellites, including Russian ones.”
How much will NATO be weakened and transatlantic relations affected by a possible re-election of Trump?
“I was at the Munich Conference. It was a weekend of terrible pessimism about the future of transatlantic relations. Europeans should not jump to conclusions that Trump will win. It brings to the table a skepticism towards NATO and an irritation about the financial contribution of the Europeans, as to date only half of the allies meet their financial obligations. However, Trump’s skepticism about NATO is not consistent with public opinion in the US. There is strong support for NATO in Congress. If Trump wins again, the relationship with Europe will probably be more difficult than in his first term and he may have stronger support in Congress, but he will not be able to “kill” NATO. This can only happen if the Europeans agree.”
How do you see Turkish-American relations today?
“Turkey was an important, constructive and useful ally during the Cold War even though we had ongoing problems in Greek-Turkish relations, which was not good for NATO unity. Today it remains an ally, despite the differences between Greece and Turkey and often between the US and Turkey. He is no more divisive to the Alliance than Hungarian Prime Minister Orban is to the EU. I condemn the Turkish decision to buy S-400. Turkish President Erdogan has found that this is why he missed the F-35 train, so he will always have a second-rate air force. Erdogan has changed tactics because he finds that Russia is not as powerful as he thought, he recognizes that Russian aggression in the Black Sea is not in Turkey’s interest and that its interests lie in the West. He saw that he was increasingly isolated on the question of Sweden joining NATO and realized that his force structure would take a negative hit if he did not acquire new warplanes and especially the F-16s that we released in response to his decision to Sweden”.
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