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Today, Tuesday, Nordea Life’s Investment Director Leif-Rune Rein is in DN’s columns and predicts a ten percent return on global equities this year. Down at Danske Bank at Aker Brygge in Oslo, chief strategist Anders Johansen is more cautious.
He and the bank believe global equities will rise around five percent in 2022. He predicts even more volatile markets ahead.
– We believe the volatility we have seen in the last month or two will continue. Now omikron is upon us, but at the same time it seems like it is priced out of the market. We believe the first quarter will be characterized by increasing austerity measures and measures to ensure that the hospitals are not full, says Johansen.
The main index on the Oslo Stock Exchange rises around half a percent from the start on Tuesday.
Johansen has particular faith in two sectors in the new year.
Like telecom
He first highlights the financial sector as a favorite.
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– They do well when interest rates rise, and we believe interest rates will rise more – also the long-term interest rates. This is positive for the banking sector in particular.
– The other is telecom. The whole sector, which is a growth sector, has not risen nearly as much as the other growth sectors. For example, everything about software has risen a lot. Telecom is facing a long trend with great growth in, for example, 5G and the Internet of Things, but it is not priced in the same way, he says.
On the other hand, Danske Bank is underweight in “everything” of commodities, with the exception of oil and gas. Be it iron ore, steel, copper, various powders and chemicals for industry, and so on. However, the bank and Johansen have also said this before.
– So far it has not been quite right. It has been a sector that has risen a lot and when growth comes down a bit and China uses less raw materials, we are underweight there, he says, but emphasizes that it does not apply to oil and gas.
Think Oslo may surprise
Johansen believes that the Oslo Stock Exchange will have a return of approximately five percent for the year as well, but that the Norwegian stock exchange is more likely to surprise positively than to disappoint. This is because he believes the oil price will remain at current levels and there is a greater risk that it will rise than fall in light of the energy crisis, especially in Europe.
Going forward, there are three things in particular he is following: the corona, inflation and the economic development and growth in China.
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Investment Director Leif-Rune Rein pointed to the companies’ earnings growth as an important thing to follow. According to him, global equities had earnings growth of 53 percent last year. This year, seven percent growth in earnings is expected, he said.
– And it is in a year where economic growth is expected to be above where they have been for the last ten years. I think there is good room for positive surprises, said Rein.(Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases using a link, which leads directly to our pages. Copying or other use of all or part of the content may only take place with written permission or as permitted by law. For additional terms look here.
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