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I think the infection rates will rise more slowly than expected – VG


POSITIVE NEWS: New knowledge about the effect of the corona vaccine – and a third booster dose – provides a basis for optimism, according to the assistant health director.

Assistant Director of Health Espen Rostrup Nakstad believes that the measures have had a certain effect on the spread of infection.

Last week was characterized by a still high level of infection, and on Monday 383 people are still hospitalized.

Assistant health director Espen Rostrup Nakstad says, however, that the new measures have probably contributed to a flattening of the infection and the number of admissions.

– A few weeks ago, you stated that the infection situation in Norway was out of control. Do we have better control now?

– It may look like it. I think that the first measures that came over two weeks ago, and those that were introduced last week, have had a certain effect. This is good news, and shows that what we do together works, he says.

The big question now, says Nakstad, is how the infection will change in the future. Nakstad himself believes that infection rates will rise more slowly than first thought.

– It will therefore be interesting to see how the development is in other countries that have similar measures as us, such as Denmark, or stricter measures, such as the Netherlands.

Continued uncertainty

The delta variant is still dominant among cases of infection in Norway. At the same time, 3394 cases of the omicron variant have been detected in Norway so far, FHI reports. Many questions about omikron are still unanswered.

– We are still uncertain about omikron – how it will change in the future, whether it will lead to more admissions, and whether we can get control of the infection, he says.

According to Nakstad, the outbreaks at several Oslo Christmas dinners are one of the reasons why there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the development of the omikron.

In total, there were somewhere between 500 and 620 people in Louise’s premises on 26 November, where at least 140 people have been diagnosed with the infection. Of the 111 participants at the Christmas table who were interviewed afterwards, 74 per cent were diagnosed with corona infection and almost 60 per cent have been infected with the omicron variant.

– We have figures that show that omikron has increased significantly. But omikron got a “flying start” with very many cases, so it is difficult to say how the rate of increase in a normal situation will be with the measures we have now.

Preliminary reports and figures from South Africa indicate that omicron does not cause a more serious disease course than delta. Nakstad warns that omikron can still lead to many hospital admissions.

– At present, it indicates that omikron is kinder than delta when it comes to serious illness, but that it is also more contagious. Thus, omicron can cause many admissions anyway, he says.

Good vaccine news

New knowledge about the effect of the corona vaccine – and a third booster dose – certainly provides a basis for optimism, according to the assistant health director. Some studies have reported that a vaccine will provide 95 percent protection against the delta variant after a third booster dose, and close to 80 percent protection against omicron.

– Although it is not as high for omikron, it is high numbers that will help many. It supports the advice given to take a third dose.

Whether the third dose will be the last, however, is still uncertain.

– Is it the case that we must continue to be vaccinated every time a new variant appears?

– It is uncertain how often you will need a booster dose. For example, a tetanus shot must be taken every ten years, while other vaccines do not need new doses after you have taken them as a child.

Nakstad adds that the coronavirus we have in society today is not the same as the virus that turned the world upside down almost two years ago.

– Omikron is the fourth variant we have in Norway, and the vaccine is not completely tailored for this. Nevertheless, the vaccine has a good effect, he says.

Nakstad believes this is a good sign that the population does not necessarily need to take so many booster doses in the future.

– Maybe some vulnerable groups will be offered vaccines in the long term, but it is too early to say.

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