The war in Ukraine has not gone according to Vladimir Putin’s plans, according to military experts.
But at home in Russia, the war has been a success for the president.
After the invasion, Putin’s popularity has skyrocketed. That it would happen, the president could feel reasonably sure, according to the renowned social scientist Alexei Levinson.
– MEASURING PUTIN’S SUPPORT: Alexei Levinson heads the Department of Socio-Cultural Research at the Independent Levada Center in Moscow. Photo: Evgeny Kurbatov
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– Every time Putin has started a military operation, the number of those who support him has increased rapidly. We saw it after the war in Georgia in 2008, and after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, he says.
Climbs on polls
Levinson is the head of the department of socio-cultural research at the independent Levada Center in Moscow, which conducts monthly surveys in which they ask, among other things, what people in Russia think about the president and the work he does.
“It is those who believe it was internal affairs that made Putin go to this step, and I think there may be some truth in that,” Levinson said.
Before the Ukraine war, in December 2021, 63 percent of Russians said they thought Putin was doing a good job as Russia’s president.
Now the support is up to 83 percent.
The TV news affects
But Levinson believes support will increase even more, especially if the TV news can report to people on victories for the Russian army in Ukraine.
– And I emphasize then that I say “report”, says Levinson.
– BUTSHA: The massacre in Butsja is presented to Russian TV viewers framed in the word “fake”. Russian authorities have claimed that the killings were staged by the Ukrainians. Photo: Mariel Mellingen
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For what is reported on Russian state-controlled television is not the same as what the independent media tells about the situation in Ukraine.
– FILM TRICK: “Stop fake” is written in the red box at the bottom right, while a commentator says that Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky is not here in Kyiv, but is standing in front of a green screen with a false background. Photo: Mariel Mellingen
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When we ask if we might assume that the state-controlled television stations will report victories in Ukraine no matter what happens on the ground, Levinson thinks for a few seconds before answering:
– I think our elite and Putin himself need increased support from the people, so they will do anything to get it, both on the battlefield and on the TV screen.
– FULL CONTROL: There are no independent TV channels left in Russia. Photo: Mariel Mellingen
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For this war also takes place in the media, and especially TV – which is the medium most Russians get their news from.
– For many, the main source is TV, and they look at what is said on TV as facts, Levinson says.
– TALK SHOWS: On Russia’s state TV channels, there are hour after hour of talk shows in which events and statements from Ukraine and the West are rejected as false. Photo: Mariel Mellingen
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But many young Russians have replaced the TV with their mobile phones, where they receive independent news.
“The young people are not connected to state propaganda in the same way, so we see that among them the support for Putin is lower,” Levinson said.
Young people are skeptical
This is also the picture we get when we ask people on the streets of Moscow what they think of the president.
– Putin defends us, says an elderly lady.
– Our lives have improved under his rule, says a well-grown man.
But young people have other answers:
– I think he is completely crazy, says a young girl.
– I do not understand why people like him, says another.
– Putin? I do not want to talk about him, says a third, shakes his head and leaves.
– POPULAR? Darya is one of the young Russians we talk to in Moscow who does not understand why Putin is so popular. But she says she assumes he has climbed the polls because of the situation in Ukraine. Photo: Evgeny Kurbatov
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And very many of those TV 2 addresses us will not talk to us at all.
Do people answer correctly?
It can be dangerous to say anything wrong in Russia, where people have been arrested just for walking in the capital with yellow and blue socks.
So how can you be sure that people are saying what they mean in surveys?
– Professionally, we do not distinguish between lies and truth, says Levinson.
He takes us on a thought experiment.
– Let’s say they’re lying. But since we then measure the lies over time, the difference between December and March will still be over 20 percent. Those are hard facts. So in that case, people’s propensity to lie has increased since December, he concludes.
He further explains that even if a man tells his wife that he hates a presidential candidate with all his heart, but still ticks for that candidate when he stands in the polling station, it is the result of the ballot paper one must relate to. Not what’s going on in the man’s head.
– We can not then call this a lie. That is the way a public opinion works, says Levinson.
– KREML: Many people cross the bridges at the Kremlin, but few would stop and talk to TV 2 about Vladimir Putin. Photo: Evgeny Kurbatov
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But that popular opinion has not come by itself. In Russia, state propaganda is being pumped out and strict information control has been introduced.
Russian authorities claim that the invasion of Ukraine took place due to a genocide against Russian speakers in Ukraine. It is also these allegations that are conveyed by the state TV channels.
Independent media have been blocked or forced to close down.
In addition, Russia has passed a law making it punishable by imprisonment for up to fifteen years for spreading what they believe is false information about Russia’s armed forces.
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