“I hope to see active yellow vests, not sofa yellow vests” – Liberation

The call to demonstrate has been circulating on social networks for ten days. Behind the hashtag #GiletsJaunes7janvier, an incentive to take to the streets “anywhere in France”, Moreover “especially in the capital”. A walk for “social and fiscal and climate justice, for the RIC [référendum d’initiative citoyenne, ndlr], against 49.3, against inflation, for peace, against pension reform, against the increase in basic necessities (petrol, electricity, etc.), in support of the French overseas departments and territories, for l ‘repeal of the vaccination pass and against state violence” , reads the declaration of the demonstration, validated on 4 January by the Paris Police Headquarters.

“Going to fail”

This Saturday, in Paris, the demonstrators are expected from 11 in place de Breteuil, before marching towards Bercy, via Denfert-Rochereau and place d’Italie. The organizers are two familiar faces of the movement: Titouan Bisson and Jamel Bouabane. These first yellow vests already existed in 2018, when the price of diesel was close to 1.50 euros per litre. Today the consumer price index touches 1.90 euros – The INSEE inflation measurement tool – have dropped from 103 points in 2018 to 114 in 2022, the prices of energy and basic necessities have exploded. However, no yellow tide in sight.

“We walk every Saturday, but this time the media is of interest”, denounces Jamel Bouabane. Despite the relative virtual excitement and the proliferation of carpooling groups to reach Paris, the extent of the march’s participation remains unknown. Louis Baron, 22, a student of political science at the University Paris-Panthéon-Assas and a former supporter of the yellow vests, is convinced: “It will flop on January 7th. The yellow vests are over. I’ve seen it thirty times: it is isolated individuals who initiate events. You can find some stuff on Facebook, Twitter, but no real dynamics.

These calls “they are not always implemented and, above all, they are very little broadcast by the media, confirms Magali Della Sudda, research fellow in political science at the CNRS in Bordeaux. While it is true that many people no longer participate in these collective actions, there are still roundabouts where yellow vests meet regularly.

Paralyzed by fear and insecurity

For Jamel Bouabane, “the main reason [de cette hésitation]it’s fear.” The “32 blinded and 5 hands torn off” caused by the police crackdown four years ago, are, according to him, unique “tip of the iceberg”. In addition to an injury toll that he considers much higher, he cites the “separations, convictions, house searches, reprisals, dismissals”, so many consequences of the mobilization that can dissuade, today, from going back to demonstrating.

This recourse to specific repressive measures, such as preventive arrests, “demonstrate the transformation of the police and how public authorities see demonstrations as disorder and no longer as the exercise of a fundamental democratic freedom”, pointe la chercheuse Magali Della Sudda.

“The will of the government is that the citizen is afraid to demonstrate”, says Thierry, founding member of the Yellow Card Collective. 56 years old, father of six children, works as an accountant in Auvergne. Created in November 2018, this rally fights for the “dignity of life, work and pensions”. After some hesitation, she shared the call to demonstrate on Saturday via her collective’s Twitter profile, followed by more than 24,000 people. He himself won’t make the trip to Paris, mainly because his gas bill has doubled and his finances won’t allow it. Economic precariousness “Not to underestimateexplained Magali Della Sudda. To go to big cities you have to take into account the cost of petrol, the cost of parking”.

Violence and precariousness, two factors that Valérie, 50 years old from Rouen, knows well: “Mortgages, water, electricity and fuel are increasing, how can we continue?” he wonders. On the first day of the mobilization, November 17, 2018, a driver hit her at a roundabout. She escapes with a broken cuboid bone and three months off, but loses her job. Finally, in September 2022, she found a temporary job at an energy services company. “During this time, I never lost my anger and rageit turns on. I returned to the protests on crutches”. Saturday, hopefully “see active yellow vests, not sofa yellow vests”.

Break with the political world

In 2018, the movement was successful “create a real break with the political world”, believes Thierry. But the election in June of 88 deputies of the National Gathering and 149 The New Popular, Ecological and Social Union in the National Assembly still does not bring the aspirations of the yellow vests to the renewal of the political personnel. Hope to find it soon “the spirit of the roundabouts, where the yellow vests survived, outside any trade union framework or party representation”.

“Today we have various profiles that coexist in groups still activeanalyzes Magali Della Sudda. If in 2019-2020 the orientation of the movement was rather marked by leftist themes – the question of social justice, inequalities, the demand for more democracy – this movement fractured with the health crisis and the pandemic”.

For Martine Donnette and Claude Diot, former merchants, now retired, this period is granted “to restructure the movement, far from being dead, especially around professional needs”. Both live in Marignane, a few kilometers from Marseille. They won’t go to Paris on Saturday, but they will go to one of the shows in the Bouches-du-Rhône. The context of current effervescence, with the pension reform that is announced and the requests of doctors, merchants or even bakers, welcomed this Thursday at the Elysée by Emmanuel Macron, could be the signal of a common anger. It is also before the Ministry of Economy and Finance, whose action is deemed insufficient in the face of the explosion in the cost of living, that the demonstration must end its course on Saturday. For Thierry, this could be an opportunity to put away the yellow vest and find a “another symbol of the popular uprising”to give new life to the movement: “The bread.”