NATO nuclear weapons nearby
“The reality is that the military in both Finland and Sweden believe that, from a military point of view, it would be possible to place NATO nuclear weapons in Finland and Sweden. It would be possible from a technical and military point of view, but that does not mean. that politically and strategically the leadership of these countries would agree, “Bērziņa explained.
Finland and Sweden stated that they are currently considering this possibility does not want to argue. Furthermore, the bigger question is whether any major power would be interested in placing their nuclear weapons in the Nordic countries.
“This is under a huge question mark, because these are not some kind of nuclear weapons without a national connection, they belong to the United States or Britain or France. And it doesn’t seem like any of these great powers would be interested in placing their weapons. nuclear power in another country At the moment there is no need, no needs or interests.
Yes, maybe Finland and Sweden could theoretically grant the permission, but if it really happens, I have great doubts, “the expert stressed.
However, such announcements about the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Finland and Sweden can cause great outrage in Nordic societies.
“It seems very convincing that now everything will change and there will be nuclear weapons. Blood pressure will immediately increase especially in those countries where a large part of the population at all denies the need for nuclear weapons in the world, and there are many such people in the Nordic countries. This inflames the nation, but looking beyond what has accepted and whether anyone even offers to place their nuclear weapons is a completely different question, “Bērziņa explained.
The saga of Ukraine’s grain exports
When Russia launched an all-out attack on Ukraine on February 24, some 20 million tons of grain destined for export and vital to many countries around the world were stranded in Ukraine. In July, an agreement was reached through Turkey to create a safe maritime corridor so that grain exports could resume from Ukrainian Black Sea ports.
October 29 Russia his involvement suspended in such cooperation, declaring that the safety of civilian ships cannot be guaranteed after a spectacular drone attack on the Russian navy in the occupied port of Sevastopol. On the other hand, already on October 31st 14 ships sailed along with 350,000 tons of wheat despite Russian protests. Ukraine, Turkey and the UN agreed on the movement of the ships, but Russia was simply informed.
“It appears that Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations stipulate that the risk is minimal enough to continue grain exports anyway. And yes, Russia is opposed, but will Russia really attack grain exports now? Well, that’s it. Hard to say, it wouldn’t be nice from a diplomatic point of view too.
If it is possible to continue exporting even without Russia’s participation in this agreement, it will demonstrate that Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations have been able to achieve global stability in the cereal market, “Bērziņa assessed.
And already on November 2, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced it Russia has agreed to resume participation in the Ukrainian grain export agreement brokered by Turkey and the United Nations to allow Ukrainian grain exports across the Black Sea from Wednesday
The column of the expert Kristine Bērzina in the podcast “Fuse”.
Kristīne Bērziņa, security policy expert.
Photo: Toms Šics / Latvian Radio
Kristīne Bērziņa, security policy expert and researcher at the Marshall Fund in Washington, will highlight the week’s most important events in the context of the world and Latvia in the Latvian radio podcast “Drošināťāt” each week in relation to the war in Ukraine, as well as those that they may have been lost in the mass of information, as well as commenting on why they are important and what impact it could be causing.
“The wheat deal was a particularly important diplomatic victory for Turkey, as Russia is currently pushing Turkey through the energy markets and Turkish President Erdogan is not doing well either politically or economically. That’s why Turkey’s game is. different, “said Bērziņa.
He admitted that it is not clear what is really going on behind the scenes of Russia-Turkey relations, but it is clear that Russia’s policy towards Turkey is very different from that towards NATO, although Turkey is a NATO member.
“It is not clear what is going on behind the scenes. Yes, Turkey is a NATO country and it would not be wise to sink a Turkish ship, but what exactly is happening between Turkey and Russia is a completely separate game,” the expert admitted. .
“Objectively, it can be said that the Kremlin has turned its attention away from many world issues, because much attention needs to be paid to Ukraine and the war in Ukraine. This means that there is more freedom in neighboring countries to act in a way that it may not have been possible before. So in reality, at least in the short term, the Kremlin’s influence on them is shrinking. What will happen in two or five years is something completely different, “he explained.
How neutral is Switzerland?
Those who follow events in Ukraine closely know that Germany does not have the best reputation in Ukraine at the moment. He is accused of making promises but not providing all the help promised.
However, interesting news broke this week that a conflict has arisen between German and Swiss politicians: Germans accuse Switzerland of boycotting Germany’s intention to export ammunition to Ukraine, while Swiss accuse Germans to have forgotten its neutrality.
The dispute is interesting because Switzerland surprised the world after February 24, when the long-neutral country openly sided with Ukraine.
“The first question is about the neutrality of Switzerland. Is Switzerland still really a neutral country and where are the limits of its neutrality? Switzerland participated in the sanctions against Russia this spring, but now it does not adhere to the export of ammunition. So, where is the limit? ” Bērziņa reasoned.
“Especially if you look at the strategic documents, the neutrality discourse in Switzerland remains the neutrality of cooperation – neutrality that includes cooperation with NATO.
It is not the kind of neutrality when they say: we do not need anything, we are alone here in the mountains and we do not count on you and we do not cooperate. Strategic changes are taking place in Switzerland, “she assessed.
Furthermore, Switzerland is currently increasing its defense budget and is very interested in cooperation opportunities with NATO countries and Ireland, which is developing similar thinking.
“Ireland, like Switzerland, was also neutral, but as far as Russia’s attack on Ukraine is concerned it doesn’t sound so neutral at all. So there is a change. In this case, Switzerland does not allow re-exports,” but will his policy remain that way, or can we still expect a change? Maybe “, Berzina reasoned.
At the same time, if Germany has purchased ammunition and weapons from Switzerland, but Switzerland will not allow its export, at least in the coming months, this could limit Germany’s ability to support Ukraine with defense systems.
“But in general, the news from Germany has not only been bad in recent months. In October, German arms manufacturers, with the permission of the German government, supplied Ukraine with the IRIS-T air defense system, which it seems. extremely capable of protecting Ukrainian cities from air attacks, “said Berziņa.
“Interestingly, this system is being used for the first time in Ukraine, it hasn’t been used anywhere else, because it’s brand new. And Ukraine will be expecting three more systems of this kind. Hats off to the fact. that the German army itself does not yet have such systems, but the first advanced systems that Germany allows to send to Ukraine. We are not talking about 40-year-old weapons here, but precisely the most recent ones “, he explained.
