Hurricanes in Florida: The Demographic Consequences

Mayor Tyler Payne’s house was flooded and was a total loss, as he explained in a message to the island’s residents. He and his husband could not afford a new building. Payne also resigned as mayor. “It hurts my heart to make this decision in the midst of our recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton,” Payne said. “But it is the best decision for me and my family.” Payne had been in office for more than three years and was a fourth-generation Treasure Island resident.

Number of family home sales fell

Across Florida’s Gulf Coast, residents are also now considering whether they should stay or move away. Can they afford to rebuild their destroyed homes? What will the insurance cover? And people who want to move to Florida are now pondering whether it’s worth the risk.

Such existential questions about the appeal of the “Sunshine State” regularly arise after a violent hurricane season, such as in 2004, when Florida was hit by four hurricanes. If the influx into the state offers an answer, then hurricanes have had little deterrence. The population has grown by a third to 23 million people in the two decades since Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan raged. Last year alone, more than 365,000 were added – of all the US states, only Texas had more immigrants.

At the same time, however, there are signs that Florida’s heated real estate market has cooled. The number of sales of family homes fell by twelve percent in September compared to the previous year. But interest rates, rising real estate prices and skyrocketing insurance costs probably played a bigger role than the recent hurricanes.

What happens after a storm?

According to Gulf Coast hurricane studies, migrations are a relatively short-term phenomenon. And when people turn their backs on the region, they usually stay nearby and move from a barrier island to the mainland. Older people with more financial resources are more likely than other populations to return to devastated communities.

The housing market may experience an initial supply shock as homeowners wait for insurance reimbursements to renovate or sell their homes. Another factor affecting the speed of recovery is, for example, whether there are enough construction workers available in the affected region.

Since Hurricane Andrew wreaked havoc in South Florida in 1992, stricter building regulations have been in place there. As a result, newer homes withstood the storms better than old ones, said Brad O’Connor, chief economist at real estate firm Florida Realtors.

Short and long term consequences

Recent examples show the impact storms can have on communities in both the short and long term. Lee County, where the city of Fort Myers is located, was one of the fastest-growing regions in the United States when it was hit by Hurricane Ida two years ago. Growth then slowed from 4.4 percent to 1.5 percent. According to authorities, the number of households fell from around 340,000 to 326,000. At the same time, the proportion of people aged between their late 20s and early 40s grew, as did – due to the influx of construction workers – the proportion of single men.

Longer-term trends were evident in Bay County, where Hurricane Michael hit in 2018. Four years later, the population was back to its previous level, having initially fallen by almost six percent in the first year after the storm. Since then, the population has become, on average, more diverse, wealthier and older.

The mayor of Treasure Island

In his message to voters, Mayor Payne announced that he will remain committed to the Treasure Island community. Because his parents plan to rebuild their house there. Payne emphasized that the decision to move was difficult for him: “I fully understand the difficult decisions that so many of our residents are faced with.”

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