Hurricane season is about to wake up again

(CNN) – Halloween may be over, but hurricane season still has some disturbing tricks in its final month.

Three tropical trouble spots deserve attention in the Atlantic basin in the coming days as this strange hurricane season continues to defy expectations.

One of these problem areas is in the western Caribbean and has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). ).

Once it develops, it could strengthen into a tropical storm. But exactly when and where a tropical depression develops in the coming days will have important implications for determining where it might head next.

The next tropical storm to form will be named Patty, followed by Rafael and Sara.

It is still too early to know the exact path the potential storm could take, but the system could move toward the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain and perhaps some gusty winds are expected in the western Caribbean, parts of Central America and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula next week.

The US Gulf Coast may finally have some atmospheric protection on its side after multiple devastating hits from hurricanes this season. Storm-breaking upper-level winds are expected to settle over the Gulf next week and could disintegrate any system that reaches the region.

Two other areas could be developed in the next week.

The stormy weather that brought record rainfall to Puerto Rico on Thursday and was bringing rain to parts of the northeastern Caribbean on Friday has a small window to organize into a tropical system as it slides westward in the coming days. Regardless of its development, it could cause additional rainfall leading to flooding in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola Island over the weekend and into next week.

The other area is in the open Atlantic and although it has a medium probability of development; it is unlikely to be a threat to the earth.

Hurricane season typically winds down in November, but this year has already proven to be anything but typical.

This season is above average in terms of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger).

Five hurricanes hit the US this year even though the season took a big lull, baffling experts, during what should have been the busiest part of the year.

So it’s no surprise that this November the trend looks likely to continue. Although November storms do form, they do so much less frequently overall and those that hit the US are exceptionally rare.

At least 125 tropical storms and hurricanes have crossed the Atlantic in November since the late 19th century, according to NOAA data. 98% of named storms make landfall in the US before November, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Storms that form in November tend to do so in the Caribbean and in the southwestern and central parts of the Atlantic, where warm water persists longer and the winds that break up storms tend to be weaker. The Gulf of Mexico is not a common source of tropical problems in a typical November because storm-breaking winds strengthen over the area in late fall.

For something tropical to form and remain active in the Gulf, it would likely need a boost provided by extremely warm water. The Gulf is not as warm as it was when it fed Helene and Milton, but it is still warmer than average for November.

Regardless of the possibilities of development in the coming days, the Caribbean could remain a tropical hot spot in the second half of November, according to the US Climate Prediction Center.

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but tropical systems are not limited by that date. About two dozen tropical storms and hurricanes have passed through the basin in December since the late 19th century.