Hurricane Hilary is rapidly intensifying in the Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico and is expected to bring significant rain and flooding to parts of the Southwest. The National Hurricane Center has warned that Hilary could reach Category 4 hurricane strength with winds of at least 130 mph. Currently, the hurricane is about 500 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
There is still uncertainty regarding the heaviest rain and strongest winds in the US as the storm moves north along Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. Small deviations in the hurricane’s track could change the forecast for the most intense rain and wind. Hilary’s rainfall is expected to arrive as early as Saturday in parts of the Southwest, with the worst impacts set to occur in California on Monday.
The forecast track will also determine which areas of northwestern Mexico will face the strongest winds. These winds could be strong enough to cause significant damage to property, snap trees, and down power lines. Mudslides and flash flooding are also possible, with 3 to 6 inches of rain expected across Mexico’s Baja Peninsula from Thursday to early Monday.
Although Hilary is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Southern California and other parts of the Southwest, there is an increasing chance of heavy rain and flooding in these areas. Southern California could experience widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches in areas impacted by the heaviest deluges. Parts of Arizona, Central California, and northern Nevada could also see rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches.
The multiple days of heavy rainfall could worsen the flood threat as the ground will have little opportunity to absorb moisture. However, the rainfall would help combat drought and recharge groundwater in parched portions of the Southwest. Drought conditions have expanded in New Mexico and remained steady in California and Arizona this week.
The combination of rainfall and increased cloud cover is expected to bring a significant cooldown over the weekend, with temperatures dropping by as much as 20 degrees. Phoenix may not reach triple-digit temperatures over the weekend for the first time since June.
While Hilary is more likely to make landfall in Mexico and cross into California, there is a possibility that it could make landfall in California as a tropical storm. If this happens, it would be the first time in nearly 84 years and only the third tropical storm or stronger to do so on record. The current forecast also calls for Hilary to maintain its tropical status as it heads into Nevada, which has never happened before.
The rainfall from Hilary could have a significant impact on Death Valley, California, which typically receives only 2 inches of rain in an entire year. Last year, 1.46 inches of rain fell in 24 hours, causing flash flooding that stranded around 1,000 people in Death Valley National Park.
Despite the potential for flooding, the rainfall would help combat drought and recharge groundwater in the Southwest. The region has been missing the seasonal monsoon that supplies a large percentage of its yearly rainfall, and cities like Phoenix are still waiting for measurable rainfall.
CNN’s Taylor Ward, Aya Elamroussi, and Eric Zerkel contributed to this report.
How does the forecast track of Hurricane Hilary impact the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding in the Southwest?
Hurricane Hilary is rapidly gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico and is predicted to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of the Southwest. The National Hurricane Center has issued a warning that Hilary may become a Category 4 hurricane with winds of at least 130 mph. Currently, the hurricane is located approximately 500 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
The exact path of the storm as it moves north along Mexico’s Baja Peninsula will determine where the heaviest rain and strongest winds will occur in the US. Small shifts in the hurricane’s track can alter the forecast for the most intense rainfall and wind. The Southwest can expect Hilary’s rainfall to begin as early as Saturday, with the most severe impacts anticipated in California on Monday.
The forecast track will also determine which areas of northwestern Mexico will face the strongest winds. These winds have the potential to cause significant damage to property, break trees, and knock down power lines. There is also a possibility of mudslides and flash flooding, with expected rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches across Mexico’s Baja Peninsula from Thursday to early Monday.
Although Hilary is expected to weaken considerably before reaching Southern California and other parts of the Southwest, there is a growing likelihood of heavy rain and flooding in these regions. Southern California could experience widespread rainfall between 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts reaching up to 6 inches in areas affected by the heaviest downpours.
Stay safe everyone in the Southwest, make sure to take all necessary precautions!
Praying for the safety of all those in the storm’s path. Stay strong and stay prepared!