COMPASS/AGUS SUSANTO
One family who was confirmed positive for Covid-19 prepares to take a bajaj to the Kemayoran District Health Center at RT 008 RW 003 Sumur Batu Village, Kemayoran District, Central Jakarta, Wednesday (9/6/2021). A total of 25 people were confirmed positive for Covid-19 in RT 001, RT 002, RT 008 and RT 012 RW 003 Sumur Batu Village, Kemayoran. Residents exposed to Covid-19 undergo treatment and self-isolation at the Covid-19 Emergency Hospital Wisma Atlet Kemayoran.
JAKARTA, KOMPAS — Recent research shows that environmental factors such as changes in environmental temperature and population density play a role in the transmission of Covid-19. However, human behavioral factors, such as mobility restrictions play a more important role in controlling transmission.
The study, led by Imperial College London (ICL) researchers and published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) on Thursday (10/5/2021) demonstrates the role of environmental conditions in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind Covid-19.
In this study, it was found that lower fall and winter temperatures may cause the virus to spread more easily. This environmental influence also occurs with other viruses, such as flu viruses and other corona viruses.
High temperatures and low humidity reduce transmission through respiratory droplets thereby preventing the spread of flu. High temperatures are also known to inactivate other coronaviruses in the air and on surfaces.
Also read: The Effect of Climate on Covid-19
Even so, according to Tom Smith, the study’s first author from the Department of Life Sciences at ICL, temperature changes have a much smaller effect on transmission than policy interventions. “So, before everyone is vaccinated, the government should not relax lockdown policies and neglect social distancing just because the weather is heating up,” he said.
According to Smith, measuring the effect of environmental factors including temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet radiation (sunlight) on SARS-CoV-2 transmission becomes difficult during a pandemic. This is because human factors such as population density and behavior have become the main drivers of transmission.
As we move into the northern hemisphere summer, public health policies remain critical to epidemic control and adherence to recommendations will continue to play a key role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
Differences in interventions and case counts between countries and regions also make comparing environmental factors on a global scale difficult. Some countries such as Brazil, India, Iran, Indonesia have high transmission despite having a hotter climate.
As a result, some epidemiological models assume the response of SARS-CoV-2 is identical to that of other coronaviruses. To fill this gap, the research team from ICL, in collaboration with Imperial’s MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, and Utah State University, compared transmission across the United States. The country has a wide variety of climates with comparable policies and case numbers, which allows the impact of environmental factors to be eliminated.
COMPASS/RADITYA HELABUMI
Joint officers of the Covid-19 Task Force disperse the queue of online motorcycle taxis who will take orders at the McDonald’s Cideng outlet, Central Jakarta, Wednesday (9/6/2021). A number of McDonald’s outlets are filled with online motorcycle taxis from various applicators who will take orders for the BTS Meal, a menu that was recently launched in collaboration with McDonald’s Indonesia and one of the K-pop groups BTS. The booming interest in the new menu, which can only be ordered through applications and services without going down, has caused a number of outlets and ordering applications to be temporarily closed due to crowds and long queues at a number of outlets in Jakarta and its surroundings.
Behavioral Factors
They found strong evidence that lower temperatures and higher population densities increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. ICL research team member Will Pearse said: “Although temperature and population density influence the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, our findings reaffirm that the most important drivers are public policies and individual behavior. That, for example, during restrictions, the temperature factor in transmission becomes insignificant.
“This means, for example, that warmer regions should not expect to ease mobility restrictions before colder regions. Moreover, warmer areas tend to have higher population densities, for example, the population in Florida is more dense than in Minnesota,” he said.
Also read: Behavioral Factors and New Variants Behind India’s Covid-19 Tsunami
Lessons from India, Never Relax Health Protocols
Research team member Ilaria Dorigatti said in the early phase of the pandemic, places with colder temperatures were associated with higher transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, the effects of season and climate on SARS-CoV-2 transmission are weaker than the effects of population density and, in turn, policy interventions.
“This implies that, as we move towards summer in the Northern Hemisphere, public health policies remain critical to epidemic control and adherence to recommendations will continue to play a key role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission,” he said.
COMPASS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO
The density of the Kebon Kembang Market area, Bogor City, West Java, Saturday (8/5/2021). The weekend before Lebaran is widely used by residents of Bogor and its surroundings to shop for Lebaran needs such as food and clothing in this place. Although the Covid-19 pandemic is still ongoing, this crowd condition cannot be avoided.
The researchers concluded that there is no single cause and solution to the current Covid-19 pandemic. All factors must be carried out in proportion. That, for example, environment (including population density) and daily weather can play a role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
However, the main driver of contagion, and the best method for controlling it, is public policy. “When stringent public policy measures are implemented, the transmission effects of environmental drivers are negligible. Therefore, while SARS-CoV-2 may exhibit seasonal and spatial variations in its transmission rate, this effect can be mitigated through public health interventions,” the researchers said.
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