Sociologists combined three surveys (February 2021, November 2021, early February 2022) in which residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions were asked about relations with Russia. The respondents were understandably only residents of those parts that were controlled by the Ukrainians at the time.
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“In all the southern and eastern regions, the overwhelming majority see Ukraine as independent from Russia. Even in the Donetsk region, only 10 percent would like to unify into a single state against 86 percent who supported the independence of Ukraine. There is a similar situation in the Luhansk region “, writes the institute.
They are not even a pseudo-referendum, no one votes on anything, the historian points out
War in Ukraine
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In other regions of the south and east, even fewer people would like unification with Russia. Sociologists are therefore convinced that in any plebiscite normally conducted, the inhabitants of the aforementioned regions would certainly speak out in favor of the independence of Ukraine and its territorial integrity.
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According to them, the outflow of residents who fled the fighting from their homes to safety changes nothing.
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“As a thought experiment, for example, we can assume that 60 percent of the population has left the territory of the Kherson region and only the pro-Ukrainian citizens have left. So, in the region, among those who remain, the share of supporters of unification with Russia would still be only 15 percent compared to 75 percent of those who are on the side of Ukraine “, say the researchers.
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The Russians are filming the manipulation. And they put it on the internet
The first videos of pseudo-referendums in occupied areas of Ukraine, which began on Friday, are already appearing on the Internet. Apparently, the Russians themselves are documenting the conditions under which they let local residents vote.
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For example, in one of the videos, one of the senior voters asks, “What should I put there? Yes or no?” She has no privacy in the voting booth, the cameraman stands behind her and takes the card directly and films it while filling it out. This is unacceptable in a civilized democratic world.
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Even in the official photos of this event, which historian Timothy Snyder describes as “media gymnastics”, no plutons are seen. The OSCE, which controls elections around the world, said the “referendum” results have no legal effect because they do not comply with Ukrainian law or international standards and the areas are not safe. There will be no independent observers and much of the pre-war population has fled.
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Already in 2014, the majority were against unification
Similar sentiments were already present in eastern Ukraine in April 2014. When sociologists conducted a representative survey in each of the eight regions of southern and eastern Ukraine (including the Donetsk and Luhansk regions), the question was: “How can you imagine Ukraine’s relations with Russia? “
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From the answers, sociologists have now calculated the percentage of those who see Ukraine and Russia as two separate states and the percentage of those who, on the contrary, would imagine them united.
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If we were to consider the views of eight years ago to be relevant, it would appear that the overwhelming majority in every region of the south and east consider Ukraine independent of Russia. Relatively strongest support for “unification into one state” was in Luhansk Oblast (16% versus 80% in favor of independence), Donetsk Oblast (12% versus 87%) and Kharkiv Oblast (11%). against 87%).
There will be no mobilization in Belarus, Lukashenko said
Europe
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When the researchers then explicitly asked about the desire to join Russia (“Do you support or do you not support the idea that your region should separate from Ukraine and join Russia?”), The mood was more radical in the Donetsk regions and Luhansk.
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However, in the Donetsk region, 52% were still opposed to joining Russia, while only 28% supported it. In the Luhansk region, even 28% were against joining Russia, 30% wanted to enter.
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“It is clear that 28% and 30% are quite significant support, but first of all it is necessary to understand the context: decades of poisonous influence of Russian propaganda on these regions. Secondly, it was still a minority of the population. it means that even in such adverse information conditions and in historically complex situations, most of the Donbass did not share separatist sentiments, “the sociological institute report on Friday said.
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In the other regions that Russia would now like to annex in its would-be referendums, support for annexation has been even lower. In the Kharkiv region, 16 in favor, 66 against. In the Kherson region, only 4% wanted to join and 85% were against. In the Zaporozhye region, 6 percent were in favor, 82 percent against.
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