How will the war between Russia and Ukraine end | am730

The Russo-Ukrainian War has entered its final chapter. Since one of the most important participants behind the scenes in this war (perhaps it would be more appropriate to say that he is the instigator) they decided to withdraw. If the main character is no longer working, naturally the play will not be able to continue.

On the surface, this war was caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; but the reason why Russia attacked Ukraine was because of NATO’s intention to expand to the east. NATO expansion to the east is not the need of European countries, but the need of the United States to establish global hegemony. In fact, European countries were originally willing to maintain good relations with Russia. This will help European countries explore the large Russian market and take advantage of Russia’s cheap natural gas energy resources. If the United States had not intervened and exposed Russia as a security threat to NATO, the European countries themselves would not have provoked this war.

Now that the United States has a capricious president, it suddenly feels that the war between Russia and Ukraine took place in Europe, that it is an internal European affair. ‘ there, and that it has nothing to do with the United States on the other side of the Atlantic. The United States must prioritize its own issues and does not intend to further contribute to this war. The problem is that in the past, the United States and Europe could not suppress Russia even if they came together in the future, Europe will be even more hard to do that alone.

So far, European countries are still talking tough, saying they will continue to support Ukraine. But if Trump really stops US aid to Ukraine after he takes office on January 20 next year, and the war situation on the front line is increasingly unfavorable for Ukraine , European countries will soon realize that it is not possible to continue. Under such circumstances, European countries had no choice but to join the United States and persuade Ukraine to accept the peace plan.

Sources in the political circle show that Trump’s so-called peace plan is designed specifically for Russia. The main idea is to exchange land for peace. Ukraine wants to give up four eastern coastal regions and Crimea and recognize the legal status of the autonomous governments established in these areas. The Ukrainian government must accept the pro-Russian stance adopted by these local governments and stop arbitrarily interfering. In addition, Ukraine must also return the land it previously occupied in Kursk, Russia in exchange for the land occupied by Russia and inhabited by non-Russian people. In this way, Ukrainians will feel better.

On the basis that Ukraine is willing to give up those lands, Russia agrees to a complete ceasefire and will not enter Ukraine any more. However, Russia may not necessarily withdraw all its troops to Russia immediately, but will remain in the occupied territories for a while until the situation calms down.

Western countries will accept the above conditions because most of them are already a fait accompli. The most difficult thing to reach an agreement on is the issue of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Russia can ask Ukraine to promise not to try to join NATO in the future; but Western countries may think that Ukraine does not have the conditions under the current situation to join NATO, and that there is no need to write it down in the agreement. The final outcome depends on whether Russia is willing to save face for Western countries.

As for Zelensky, of course he cannot accept this plan. Because this is equivalent to canceling his previous efforts. It is a pity that he is only an agent.