In our country, the harvest is slowly starting, while in Romania it is in full swing. What do we have in common? First of all, the fact that our countries are to be exporting grains from Ukraine on a large scale due to the war. Will this affect grain prices in our countries?
We asked Rafał Pawlikowski from Agrovena, who works very well on the Romanian and Central European markets due to the activities conducted there, for a comment on this matter.
Artur Tłustochowicz: We live in an exceptional period of the war in Ukraine, which was a significant producer of grains. Will, then, as a substitute, the export of Romanian grain affect the situation of our market?
Rafał Pawlikowski, Agrovena company: Not. Certainly, Ukrainian grain (despite the war, the agriculture there is still functioning, editor’s note) will have the greatest impact on our market, and in turn our and the Romanian grain market will adapt to these rules of the game. The largest stream of grain from Ukraine flows into the world through Romania and the port of Constana, and through Poland. Romania has been very much involved in the transport of Ukrainian grain “going” to the port – at present, and the natural supply of Romanian grain – “is clogged”.
And now, on the one hand, we will have the stock market, where MATIF will indicate prices resulting from the global balance, which will certainly be “tight” and the mentioned prices will be high, and on the other hand, we will have local prices in Poland and Romania – countries that are closest to Ukraine, and where each Ukrainian “grain” passes through them, and thus the local markets of two countries, under the influence of a large supply of goods from Ukraine.
With this in mind, there will be quite significant discrepancies between the prices of grains dictated by MATIF and commodity exchanges and markets of Western countries, and “our” local prices, which will be offered by the miller or feeder.
To sum up, according to my predictions and the actual situation, there will be large differences in the prices of offers and transactions on the cereals market – especially in Romania and Poland, countries, as I mentioned, bordering Ukraine. It is enough, for example, that one rocket will hit the tracks or the Ukrainian infrastructure and as a result transport will stop or information that Putin has made an agreement with “someone” and we will have a significant impact on the level of market prices of grains. The grain market will be very speculative.
–
©
Material protected by copyright – the rules for reprints are specified statute.
–
