How will Barcelona fare? The mathematical prediction on how the Champions League group stage will end

There is less and less time left to officially start the UEFA Champions League 2024/25. A tournament that in this edition will have a renewed format, consisting of a league phase with 36 teams that will play eight games each, four at home and four awayThe top eight teams will qualify directly for the next phase, while the remaining eight spots will be decided by a playoff between the teams ranked ninth to twenty-fourth in the league table.

Now, as we approach the start of this tournament, scheduled for next September 17, it is common for them to start the pools and projections from different sectors in order to try to predict the position of their favorite team or the classification in generalSome base their predictions on knowledge and intuition, while others use more advanced tools such as statistics to make numerical forecasts.

It is at this point that names such as Piotr Klimek, a mathematics specialist at ‘Football Rankings’, emerge, who has carried out A study with advanced statistics to predict which position each club will finish in this new league format. Below, at FCBN, we present the results of this study carried out by the Polish professional.

How would the top 8 for the 2024/25 Champions League group stage be based on this prediction?

According to Klimek’s study, Manchester City are positioned as the first classified in this 2024/25 Champions League group stage, with an average of 18.38 points and an 88.9% chance of finishing in the top eight. Who would be his ‘escort’? Real Madrid, which would be in second place with an average of 16.23 points and a 64.9% chance of being in the ‘top 8’.

Third place would go to Bayern Munich (16.2 points – 99.1%), The fourth for Inter Milan (15.41 points – 97.7%), the fifth for Atalanta (15.17 points – 97.2%), the sixth for Arsenal (14.84 points – 97.8%), the seventh for Borussia Dortmund (14.89 – 96.7%) y Eighth place for FC Barcelona with 14.87 points and a 96.7% chance of finishing in the ‘top 8’.

How will the play-off phase for qualifying for the 2024/25 Champions League round of 16 be distributed?

Likewise, this prediction provides an overview of the 16 playoff matches to determine the other eight teams that qualify for the round of 16. In this sense, they would be measured Bayer Leverkusen (9th) against Celtic (24th), AC Milan (10th) against SL Benfica (23rd), Stuttgart (11th) against AS Monaco (22nd), Liverpool (12th) against Sporting de Portugal (21st), Atlético de Madrid (13th) against Bologna (20th), RB Leipzig (14th) against Girona (19th), Paris Saint-Germain (15th) against Juventus (18th) and PSV Eindhoven (16th) against Aston Villa (17th).

9 Bayer Leverkusen 14.73 79.7%

10
AC Milan
14.19
76.1%

11
Stuttgart
13.67
69.3%

12
Liverpool
13.03
59.5%

13 Atletico Madrid 12.88 60.6%

14 RB Leipzig 12.82 56.9%

15 Paris Saint-Germain 12.59 54.0%

16 PSV Eindhoven 12.11 49.6%

17
Aston Villa
11.99
46.3%

18
Juventus
11.58
43.5%

19
Girona
11.41
40.9%

20
Bologna
11.28
39.8%

21
Sporting Club de Portugal
11.27
40.2%

22 AS Monaco 11.14 36.2%

23
SL Benfica
10.65
31.0%

24
Celtic
9.87
21.0%

Which teams will be eliminated from the Champions League 2024/25 group stage?

In this section, nine teams would be eliminated from this group stage.: LOSC Lille (25th), Feyenoord (26th), Stade Brestois (27th), Club Brugge (28th), RB Salzburg (29th), Sparta Prague (30th), Dinamo Zagreb (31st), Strum Graz (32nd), Young Boys (33rd), Shakhtar Donetsk (34th), Crvena Zvezda (35th) and finally Slovan Bratislava in 36th position, which promises a really exciting group stage. Now, We can only wait and see if these predictions come true in the quest for the coveted Champions League trophy.

25 LOSC Lille 9.67 55.0%

26
Feyenoord
9.50
52.3%

27 Stade Brestois 9.15 48.0%

28 Club Brugge 8.64 41.3%

29 RB Salzburg 8.42 37.3%

30 Sparta Prague 8.18 32.7%

31 Dinamo Zagreb 6.79 19.5%

32 Sturm Graz 6.36 16.0%

33
Young Boys
5.69
10.4%

34
Shakhtar Donetsk
5.09
6.4%

35 Red Star 4.95 6.7%

36 Slovan Bratislava 3.03 0.7%