Strategic blunder
“We’ve been preparing for this scenario since 2014,” Moonfish says. For example, Ukraine has increased the number of fighter jets and considerably expanded its air defenses. In recent years a lot of practical experience has been gained in the Donbas in the east and Ukraine has been reinforced with a lot of Western equipment. At the same time, the Ukrainians have adapted their tactics, Moonfish says, and have become more creative. “But what we do differently, we can discuss that after the win.”
Professor of war studies and former F-16 pilot Frans Osinga is surprised about the Ukrainian success in the air. He calls it a “strategic blunder” that Russia has no air superiority. “That also explains why Ukraine is so successful on the ground.” Although much is still unclear about Ukrainian tactics, according to Osinga it seems that they include: the swedish strategy follow. This means that aircraft are not placed too close together at an airport, but are spread out as much as possible. In addition, Ukrainian pilots are constantly changing locations, possibly using highways to take off and land. “That makes them less likely to be a target for Russia.”
Osinga also thinks that the Ukrainians in the air ensure that they are undetectable for the Russians for as long as possible. “They do that by flying very hard and very low, and also by not turning on the radar for as long as possible,” says Osinga. Then the planes cannot be picked up by Russian air defenses and carry out surprise attacks.
Watch the conversation with squadron commander Moonfish here:
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