It was a difficult night, Ukrainian President Zelensky said, but one in which Ukraine’s air defenses claimed a 100 percent result: all 36 Iranian Shahed drones that Russia sent on Ukraine last Thursday were shot down prematurely.
‘Big steps taken’
The extent to which this success is true is difficult to verify, warns Brigadier General Han Bouwmeester. He points to the amount of propaganda in this war. But he dares to say that Ukraine is taking remarkable steps. Bouwmeester states that the Ukrainian air defense is at the top of what is possible.
“It is quite rare what they have,” says defense expert Peter Wijninga. He estimates that Ukraine now shoots 85 to 90 percent of Russian missiles from the sky. According to the experts, Ukraine now has an impressive mix of systems that complement each other well.
Patriots
Think of the arrival of the Patriot. Ukraine has had two such highly advanced weapon systems since this month, thanks to the United States and a joint supply from Germany and the Netherlands. Ukraine prefers to keep secret exactly how they are used.
“It is now clear that they are using a Patriot to protect the capital Kyiv,” says Wijninga. “You can take out ballistic missiles with that. The Patriot is good at that.”
It may also be the much-discussed Russian Kinzhal missile, a showpiece of Putin. The Kinzhal can detonate a 500 kilo bomb and, according to Russia, could easily evade defenses, but Ukraine claims to have already disabled six.
Layered system
A Patriot is not suitable for the Iranian drones, which Russia deploys on a large scale. “They fly too low and are too small,” says Wijninga. Moreover, those drones are cheap for Russia, so they always come in swarms. You would rather not use very expensive rockets for that, Bouwmeester also explains. An advanced rocket can easily cost millions.
According to defense experts, the answer to all the different threats is a so-called layered system. Bouwmeester: “You have missiles that you can fire from your shoulder, such as the Stingers – they see helicopters, for example. Then you have rapid-fire cannons, which you can use for those drones. Above that, you have more automatic systems. I feel that They say they have that in order, especially after the arrival of the Patriots.”
Still vulnerable
But despite these reinforcements, Ukraine remains vulnerable. “The defense is not 100 percent watertight,” says Wijninga. “That is absolutely impossible. You can have a lot of systems, but you cannot defend the whole of Ukraine with them. That is too big. That is why the Ukrainians have to make choices. Do you do Kyiv and not Kharkiv?”
Where do you prioritize and how do you organize that? “If you protect all major cities, it will be at the expense of your defense at the front. In addition, you also have to distribute ammunition over different places. This logistical operation makes them vulnerable,” adds Bouwmeester. Wijninga continues: “You also have no guarantee that you will hit every time. You always have to take into account so-called ‘bleeders’, missiles that will get through anyway.”
For the time being, the Russian missile shower just seems to continue. That can also become problematic for cities like Kyiv. “If the enemy fires enough projectiles at you, your defense can become saturated. The fire control computer cannot handle whether the ammunition for those systems runs out at some point,” says Wijninga. According to Brigadier General Bouwmeester, the capital cannot use the entire national stock of ammunition. “At a certain point you will run into your own logistical limits.”
F-16’s
What is striking is that both countries do not send fighter planes over enemy territory. “That is the case vice versa, none of the countries has air superiority. That is because they have organized their air defenses well. The arrival of possible F-16s for Ukraine is not going to change that quickly. Then you first have to deal a blow to the Russian air defense “, says Bouwmeester.
Wijninga also thinks that any F-16s will first become a new layer in the defense line. “They have good radar that allows you to see far, and then they can fire missiles. You can use that to fill in the gaps.”
An extra layer requires even better coordination in the central fire control center, from which all systems are controlled. “It is determined in seconds which weapon is deployed when. It requires a lot of coordination. Because you have to prevent two systems from hitting the same target, which is of course a waste.”
2023-05-27 05:08:40
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