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Trump planned to draw borders between Kosovo and Serbia along ethnic lines. After the US elections there could be a further strengthening of the nationalists.
Washington DC – Donald Trump has won the US election. In terms of foreign policy, Trump could become a problem for some Eastern European states, especially Ukraine. But even beyond the Ukraine war, the second Trump administration could cause a lot of unrest in Eastern Europe. One man in particular is in focus: Richard Grenell, former Balkan envoy and ambassador to Germany, could become US Secretary of State. Grenell’s record in the Western Balkans is one of questionable deals with autocrats. Experts are now worried about Grenell’s return to world politics. About what was and what could come.
Donald Trump had Serbian President Aleksandar Vučićs and then Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti sign a deal at the White House that was never implemented. © BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP
Trump’s possible foreign minister demands “diplomacy with muscles” – and caused chaos in the Balkans
“Diplomacy with muscle” and “peace through jobs,” said Grenell at the far-right CPAC conference in February as poles of his approach to international relations. This approach was probably most concrete in its intervention in the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo. Serbian autocrat Aleksandar Vučić, like all his predecessors, refuses to recognize Kosovo’s independence. The USA represents the second largest contingent of the NATO stabilization force KFOR in the country, which has been independent since 2008. NATO intervened in the Kosovo war in 1999 after negotiations failed and has guaranteed the country’s independence ever since.
Both in Belgrade and in Pristina, politics is driven by nationalist resentment. Serbia is actively sabotaging Kosovo’s institutions in the Serb-majority north of the country. In 2020, Grenell allegedly interfered in Kosovo’s internal affairs.
Harsh accusation: Trump’s Balkan envoy is said to have sabotaged Kosovo’s government
The Grenell muscles that were flexing at the time probably triggered a vote of no confidence in the Kosovo parliament in March 2020 against Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who is now in office again. At least that’s how Kurti sees it. He subsequently accused Grenell of having persuaded his conservative coalition partners to break the coalition. Officially, the government collapsed because of a dispute over Corona policy Radio Free Europe.
Former US Ambassador Richard Grenell (l.) and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner at a press conference in the White House. © DREW ANGERER/AFP
Before that, however, there was a dispute between Grenell, Kurti and the then President Hashim Thaçi, who is now in the dock of a war crimes tribunal. Kurti accused Grenell and Thaçi of trying to force him into a “quick deal” past the EU-led normalization talks with Serbia that have been ongoing since 2013, which he considers dangerous. Grenell denied this.
Trump’s Kosovo-Serbia deal: Only one point implemented – diplomatic relations with Israel
The deal that Grenell and Trump wanted to reach at the time finally came about in the fall of 2020. Basically, the agreement included expressions of will, among other things, to abolish border controls, a moratorium on Serbian efforts, and the recognition of Kosovo in return for its withdrawal from international organizations.
Trump’s erratic foreign policy was reflected in the portal Balkan Insight According to the only implemented point of the agreement, Kosovo should establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Israel has no connection to the conflict. At the time, EU diplomats criticized Trump for jeopardizing the normalization process because of his rapid foreign policy success shortly before the US election.
Experts warn of the “danger” of a Greater Serbian project in the Balkans
In 2018, Trump tried to persuade both states to exchange territory, an analysis by the think tank recalled European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). This is fundamentally a “danger,” wrote Adnan Ćerimagić and Majda Ruge from the think tank: According to Trump’s idea, Kosovo should cede the north of the country, which is predominantly inhabited by Serbs, to Serbia. In return, Serbia should cede some predominantly Albanian communities in the south to Kosovo. In the often multi-ethnic states of the Western Balkans, it is inherently dangerous to draw “borders along ethnic settlement areas,” wrote Ćerimagić and Ruge.
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“All-Serbian Assembly” wants “protection” of Serbian minorities outside Serbia
However, things will be particularly dangerous in the second Trump administration, the experts wrote. Because Serbian nationalists in the region have become radicalized. In June 2024, an “all-Serbian assembly” in the presence of Vučić passed a declaration that basically demanded the dissolution of the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina and the “protection” of the Serb minority in Kosovo.
Ćerimagić and Ruge warned that the international community must put a stop to a greater Serbian project. An attack by Serbian irregulars in northern Kosovo in 2023 that left four dead showed the dangers of such a project.
Trump’s son-in-law and Grenell do business with Serbia
Since Trump is no longer in political office, Grenell and his son-in-law Jared Kushner have also been very active in business in the Western Balkans. With the help of Grenell, Kushner’s company is building a luxury hotel in Belgrade on land leased from the state. A multi-million dollar project including a nationalist museum dedicated to the victims of the NATO bombing.
Such projects are what Grenell likes to call “peace through jobs”. Milorad Dodik, authoritarian president of the Serb part of Bosnia, whose declared goal is the end of this state, popped the corks after Trump’s victory in the US election. In addition to Grenell, Trump would have other candidates to choose from. (kb)
