If the New York Knicks have failed at one thing this season, it’s the ability to manage expectations. The gifted roster that was expected to win 25 games but rose to the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2020-21 entered this season with the belief that its success would be replicated.
On paper, that theory was correct: New York brought back nine players from that playoff team, including All-Star Julius Randle, and signed veteran guards Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. However, as this season has proven, the 41-win season from a year ago and the revamped backcourt made people believe that the rebuilding started in 2020 by president of basketball operations Leon Rose was over.
A roster that can only get better
The 37-win season was called a short-term disappointment. The Knicks went from a situation where they were guaranteed to play at home in the Eastern playoffs to a situation they know only too well: the draft lottery.
A year ago, the Knicks were in ninth place with a 20-16 record in games decided by five points or less in the fourth quarter. In 2021-22, New York fell to 25th with an 18-26 record. A 10-loss increase can take a team from postseason play to lottery battle.
New York also lost eight games while leading by at least 15 points, the most NBA games this season, and four games while leading by at least 20 points, the most number of games lost by a team in a season over the past 25 years.
Several factors may be involved: youth (five players under 23), lack of a playmaker capable of controlling the game, Derrick Rose’s injury, poor shot selection, line-ups at the end game, the loss of a defender in Reggie Bullock.
The No. 1 priority for the Knicks’ front office and coaching staff is to address their fourth quarter issues. Fortunately, the Knicks have the resources to step forward, not back. “We have to build one block at a time, be patient”, Leon Rose told MSG’s Mike Breen at the end of the season. “We have 13 draft picks out of the next three drafts, four first-round picks.
“Regarding the opportunities that may arise, we are very flexible. … We want to be cautious in making these decisions and continuing to develop what we have.” The Knicks don’t have cap space right now — their first time without since the 2018 offseason — but have avenues for improvement, starting with a lottery pick in June to keep or use in a trade, eight future firsts, 14 seconds and above all, 12 players earning between 18 million and 1.6 million dollars.
For the Knicks to target a player like Dallas Mavericks point guard and 2022 free agent Jalen Brunson, it has to be done through a sign-and-trade, and that’s unlikely – the Mavericks would have to cooperate . The Knicks could create nearly $20 million in cap space, but that would require a team with room to pick up Kemba Walker and Alec Burks.
They also have the mid-level ($10.3 million) and semi-annual ($4.1 million) exceptions, as well as Bird rights to unrestricted free agent center Mitchell Robinson. If there’s a trade to be made, whether for an All-NBA type player or something more minor, New York has the right mix of tradable assets.
The Randale Disappointment
If there’s one player who failed to manage expectations, it’s Randle in 2021-22. After earning All-Star and All-NBA honors, leading New York to the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14 and signing a $106 million extension, Randle was meant to be the foundation piece around which to build the roster.
Instead, this season’s version of Randle was more like the fickle player during his time with the Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Pelicans and his freshman year in New York. “Randle just wasn’t comfortable at times”Rose told Breen. “He did his best. The 3-point shot hasn’t worked like it did last year, and teams have focused on it this year. In the end, he made some adjustments. I’m proud he fought for it.” Randle’s 3-point shooting has dropped from 41% last season to 31% this year.
Randle has shot 32.6% on all shots in 2021-22, up from 42.2% last season. (This is the only year in his career where he exceeded 37%). This 9.6% drop is the fifth largest among players who attempted 200 shots per season. “Julius is at his best running down the court, playing fast or attacking the ring”Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters after the season.
“When he does that and we spray the ball and he moves fast, we’re good. Hopefully we learned…from the All-Star break, I think we played some really good basketball and I think the numbers backed that up.” Despite Randle’s erratic play, his $23.8 million salary for 2022-23 falls outside the league’s top 50 and remains a contract negotiable even with the 15% bonus included in his contract.
The unanswered question for the future is whether former lottery pick Obi Toppin made Randle superfluous. If not, is there a way for the two players to get on the pitch together? In 10 games as a starter this season, Toppin averaged 20.3 points and 7.0 rebounds, shooting 57.1 percent and 43.6 percent from 3-point range.
A future at the Knicks for RJ Barrett
Barrett’s extension talks will play a role in how New York builds its roster. On the one hand, the Knicks could take an aggressive approach at the start of free agency and extend the 21-year-old to a lucrative but non-maximum contract.
Barrett is coming off a season where he averaged 20 points per game and had 11 30-point games, the most by a player 21 or younger in 2021-22. “I love it”, Thibodeau said of Barrett after the season. “He works. Great behavior, great kid, great teammate. Young, learning, hungry”.
Barrett has a free agent take of $32.7 million in 2023 and a contract that starts at $23 million would effectively give the Knicks more heading flexibility next offseason.
If an extension does not happen, it will be for one of two reasons. Either Barrett sees himself as a $181 million player, the same contract Grizzlies Ja Morant will receive in July. The Knicks could wait, as an extension would remove Barrett from the trade market if a deal to acquire an All-NBA-like player comes along this summer.
Mitchell Robinson, rester au Knicks ?
We’ll learn if the Knicks’ decision not to turn down Robinson’s $1.8 million option comes back to haunt them. Robinson would have been a restricted free agent and the Knicks would have been eligible to respond to an offer. Because he had a cap hold of $2 million, New York would still have cap space available to use.
Robinson had a 2020-21 season marred by injuries, including a broken right foot that ended his season prematurely. For New York, the risk of a new contract was greater than the center becoming an unrestricted free agent.
This season, Robinson has played the most games of his career (72), averaging 8.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in 25.7 minutes. Robinson continued to excel defensively. Robinson has limited his opponents to 45.6% shots on the key when challenging them. He ranked in the top 10 of players who defended at least 300 shots last season.
By June 30, Robinson can be extended for four years and $58 million. That $14.5 million a year average is what the market for Robinson should be this offseason.
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Nicholas Depres
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