The European Central Bank continues to raise interest rates despite thel’inflation is falling in the euro area and the banking system is experiencing many difficulties. This measure aims to curb the fall in prices, but it has repercussions on mortgage loans and loans to businesses and households. That of March 16 is the sixth increase in interest rates since last July, when the ECB put an end to the policy of adjusting interest rates. zero rate.
Variable mortgage rates could increase by 48%.
According to the latest calculations from Facile.co.uk, Frankfurt’s rate hike could lead to payments of variable mortgage loan was studied to increase by 48% compared to the previous year. first part. According to the simulations, if the ECB increase were reflected by the Euribor, the maturity of a standard variable rate mortgage loan would increase from 745 euros last June to 1,100 euros in the second quarter of 2023. That is an increase of 355 euros.
“The good news, if we want to consider it as such, explain the experts of the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. Facile.com, “is that in light of the Svb and Credit Suisse events, the future expectations of the markets have changed, which are now betting on more moderate increases in the coming months and on the possibility that the ECB will slow down, or even interrupt, upward trend”. A few days ago, with regard to Euribor Futures, the monthly installment of the loan in question could have reached 1,174 euros in June 2023, whereas today analysts are predicting that it could rise to 1,111 euros. “To understand how the maturities of borrowers will evolve in reality, we will have to wait to see how the Euribor will really evolve, the volatility of which has increased considerably in recent hours following the events of Svb and Credit Suisse”, conclude the analysts.
What happens to the fixed rate?
For those who have already taken out a fixed rate mortgage, the monthly payment will remain unchanged. However, the offer will be different for new borrowers. However, according to the latest MutuiOnline analysts, the fixed rate index (Irs) is stable against the Euribor which continues to rise, bringing variable rates almost to the same level as fixed rates: in February, the average rate is 3.52% for the variable and 3.58% for the fixed. “The first two months of the year 2023, we explain at MutuiOnline, are characterized by a return of fixed rate requests, thanks to the reduction of the gap with the variable, which now represent 80.3% of the mix (+34.3% compared to the 4th quarter of 2022).”
Subrogations are increasing and the amounts requested are decreasing
One in four families fear they will have difficulty paying their mortgage regularly over the coming year, due to a worrying general economic situation. This is what emerges from the survey carried out by Nomisma for Esdebitami Retake, a provident company operating in the credit sector.
36% of Italian families with a mortgage believe that their economic situation has deteriorated slightly over the past year, while for 9% of them it has deteriorated markedly. 65% of respondents are primarily concerned about their family’s economic situation, made even more unstable by the rising cost of living and rising interest rates on mortgages.
To cope with the increase in monthly payments and to protect themselves against further increases, many borrowers are considering change bankThis trend is confirmed by other data from Facile.comwhich highlighted how the demands of subrogation resumed their growth path and, in the first two months of the year, accounted for almost 20% of the total number of requests, double the same period last year.
“Those who have a variable rate mortgage and want to change it now have several tools at their disposal”, continue the experts, “they can choose to subrogate the financing, or, if they meet the conditions, renegotiate the mortgage with their bank, perhaps taking advantage of new rules introduced by the government.”
The increase in rates also concerns borrowing candidateswho have to face less favorable conditions than in the past. Not surprisingly, in recent months, people who have applied for financing for the purchase of their first home have sought to obtain a zero interest loan. smaller amounts than previously. Also according to the analysis of Facile.it, in the first two months of 2023 the average demand for mortgage loans for the first home fell to 136,935 euros, a decrease of 7% compared to the same period in 2022 .()
