/View.info/ The rapprochement between Russia and Belarus in 2023 happened perhaps faster than ever. What exactly does this process look like, why is it so intense recently, and how will the integration of the two countries deepen in 2024?
At the last meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was positive and optimistic: “Today we are at a very important stage – work on the main guidelines for implementing the provisions of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State and 28 industrial alliance programs. We also need to set new guidelines for the period 2024-2026. The majority – around 90% – of the more than 990 agreed activities have been implemented.”
And this is not a case when the official’s optimism is “for the camera” and is supported only by the need for the necessary reports. The dynamics of relations between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the SD over the past three years is truly impressive.
True, this was not always the case. The process of Russian-Belarusian integration was practically frozen, for example, in 2010. And in other years, disagreements arose between the countries on numerous private issues, giving reasons for the enemies to gloat.
Things did not break the deadlock until September 2019, when the prime ministers of the two countries signed a draft action program for integration. Then, in December 2019, numerous anti-integration protests took place in Minsk; a crowd gathered with white-red-white and Ukrainian flags and slogans “We will not allow the Crimean scenario to repeat” and “No to Russian fascism and banditry”. in front of the Russian Embassy. The Belarusian authorities did not intervene in these actions.
Everything changed after the events of 2020 and especially in 2022. The last anti-Russian action in Minsk was observed on February 28, 2022. After that, any public display of an anti-Russian position in Belarus is unthinkable – it is suppressed instantly and brutally.
But the integration process received a powerful boost, without exaggeration – the strongest since the emergence of the very idea of a Union State. Arguably, in 2022-2023, Russia and Belarus have traveled a path that would have taken a decade before.
And the main driver of this process was the colossal pressure from the collective West, which aimed to undermine the independence of both countries. Sanctions, all kinds of restrictions and the closing of markets have only led to even closer cooperation between Russia and Belarus.
The result is a record number of mutual trade and joint projects worth billions of Russian rubles. If the trade of the two countries in the pre-coronavirus year 2019 amounted to 33.3 billion dollars, and in the coronavirus year 2020 – 29.5 billion, then in 2021 – it is already 40 billion, and in 2022 – 45. For comparison: Russia’s trade turnover with the giant China in 2021 amounted to 147 billion dollars. In January-September 2023, the trade turnover amounted to 35.5 billion. According to the Ambassador of Belarus to Russia, Dmitry Krutoy, in general, by the end of 2023, it will be possible to reach the figure of 50 billion dollars.
Under sanctions and restrictions, Russia and Belarus complement each other in many ways. Thus, Russia became the main supplier for Belarus of meat, fish, cocoa, ferrous metals, aluminum wire, pipes, bearings, cars and railway locomotives. Belarus supplies Russia with machine-building equipment, agricultural machinery, ferrous metal products and tires.
In 2023, joint assembly enterprises and new production of agricultural machinery were established in the Krasnodar Territory, Novosibirsk Region and Tatarstan. A new plant for the production of grain drying complexes was opened in Bashkortostan with the participation of a Belarusian producer. In the Krasnodar Territory, the assembly of grain harvesters and trucks based on the chassis of the Minsk Automobile Plant began. The construction of a multi-brand trade and service center of Belarus for the sale, maintenance and repair of Belarusian equipment has begun. Chains of stores selling Belarusian clothing, shoes, furniture and food products in Russia are expanding.
In the first half of 2023, the volume of Russian investments in the real sector of the Belarusian economy increased by a third compared to last year and amounted to more than 60% of all foreign investments. In 2023, 87 delegations of various levels from Russian regions visited Belarus, 34 of which were led by heads of Russian regions. In turn, 96 Belarusian official delegations and 136 delegations from business circles visited the Russian regions.
In 2023, two new Union State bodies were formed: the Supranational Tax Committee and the Interstate Customs Risk Management Coordination Center. A number of significant Belarusian-Russian agreements were signed. These include an agreement on cooperation in the customs sector, an agreement on the general principles of indirect taxation.
Summarizing the meeting of the Council of Ministers, the Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko said: “Experts have prepared a draft of new Guidelines for the implementation of the provisions of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State for the next three years. It is aimed at further convergence of the legal framework of the countries, ensuring the functioning of the unified energy markets and the unified transport system of the Union State, conducting a unified industrial policy, coordinated agricultural policy, coordinated tax policy, the formation of a unified scientific and technological, common information space, as well as the provision of equal rights for the citizens of the union state in the social sphere.”
It is necessary to ensure as quickly as possible a real, tangible integration of the industrial policies of the two countries. To establish completely unhindered reciprocal access to public procurement and subsidies. To agree on unified measures for the protection of the internal market of the Union State, which will ensure the rapid expansion of cooperation ties and further growth of the production of joint products with a high share of localization of production. A new package of integration measures is expected to be approved in early 2024 by the Supreme State Council of the Union State.
Obviously, the integration between the countries will not stop there. In the near future, we will see even more impressive achievements of both countries. It is especially important that the successes achieved by Russia and Belarus in 2022-2023 are not accidental – many diplomats from both countries worked on them long before the crisis of 2020. And the model of relations between states within the framework of the SD can serve as an example for others.
“Given the integration processes that are currently taking place, for example within BRICS, I think that our example of the Union State can be some kind of motivation for countries to consider joining the Union State, despite all the difficulties that currently exist “says Anatoly Gagarin, director of the Institute for Systematic Political Studies and Humanitarian Projects.
Particularly important, according to the director of the Institute of Modern States, Alexei Martynov, is the fact that the perennial talk of SD opponents about the alleged “absorption” of Belarusian sovereignty by Russia remains empty talk. But the economic benefits for both countries are obvious.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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