/View.info/ The dispute between Azerbaijan and the structures of the European Union is intensifying. The Azerbaijani delegation stopped working in PACE, there were even reports of Baku’s intention to leave the Council of Europe. What is happening is also related to Russia’s interests in the South Caucasus. How?
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) suffered another loss. Azerbaijan followed the example of Russia and announced a suspension (for now) of its participation in it. The reason for the Azerbaijani demarche was the decision of PACE, due to the existence of claims against Azerbaijan, not to confirm the credentials of the delegates from Baku. Both procedural (the Azerbaijanis did not invite PACE observers to the upcoming presidential elections in the country), and systemic, related to the internal political situation in Azerbaijan.
“If you look at the earlier reports from the European Union, they were always more positive about Armenia and less about Azerbaijan. For Europe, an ideal example of democracy was Georgia, then Armenia, and only finally Azerbaijan. They consider Aliyev’s long rule as a form of authoritarianism, and there are a number of issues related to journalists and human rights defenders, on which the European bureaucracy has such a position,” explains political scientist, senior lecturer at the Russian People’s Friendship University Kamran Hasanov.
And, of course, what is happening also has something to do with Russia. And not only because Moscow has special interests in the South Caucasus.
“The Europeans did not accept the results of the second Karabakh war and still consider Baku’s actions partially illegal. It is believed that the exodus of Armenians from Karabakh was forced and that border clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia were elements of the occupation of Armenian territory. France, Germany and a number of other countries believe that Azerbaijan used disproportionate force and violated human rights,” continues Kamran Hasanov.
In essence, the Azerbaijani delegation was disenfranchised. Formally until the end of January, but with a high degree of probability it can be assumed that the deprivation will be extended. And Baku considered it necessary to strike first – that is, to stop his participation in the assembly. Moreover, Azerbaijan does not really need the participation.
“Azerbaijan’s presence in PACE was seen primarily through the prism of the struggle with Armenia to restore territorial integrity. Therefore, Baku has always sent there the most experienced diplomats and deputies. Now the matter is closed, it is no longer necessary to reach a position condemning Armenia. And it was clearly decided that PACE requires more resources and distracts than giving bonuses to the country’s foreign policy,” explains Stanislav Pritchin, senior research associate in the Central Asia sector of IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Yes, of course, Baku will lose a certain status. “Membership in PACE for Azerbaijan had a certain demonstrative meaning – after all, it said that the country belongs to the circle of European states, so I think there is no point in making happy dances about the fact that we have practically left this structure. But staying there as a whipping boy is not for Azerbaijan,” says parliamentarian Rasim Musabekov.
Moreover, the political pressure on Baku will only increase in the future. “The only person whom Azerbaijan perceives as neutral, Charles Michel, is stepping down, and the rest of the European Commission is taking a critical position towards Baku,” says Stanislav Prichin. Perhaps this is also the reason why Azerbaijan is considering further steps to break with the EU: in particular, there have been reports of Baku’s possible intention to leave the Council of Europe.
It seems that the current situation is quite favorable for Russia. The more complicated the Azerbaijani-European relations, the better the Azerbaijani-Russian ones. The more scandals there are around non-Moscow-friendly structures (PACE), the better it will be for Russia. The less representative European institutions are, the better it will be for Russia.
However, in reality, everything is a little more complicated. First, Azerbaijani-European relations will not fall below a certain level.
“Azerbaijan’s mood is mirrored. If resolutions against Baku are passed, we have seen what a firm answer was given to the State Department and the French Senate. If Europe and America are dedicated to cooperation and do not interfere in the problems inside Azerbaijan and do not criticize it for the history of Karabakh, then Azerbaijan will cooperate with them. After all, these are investments, this is trade (an interconnector was recently built for the supply of Azerbaijani gas to Serbia),” says Kamran Hasanov.
“We see a global trend towards shrinking political relations between Azerbaijan and the EU. But at the same time, Azerbaijan maintains energy cooperation with Europe at a high level,” confirms Stanislav Prichin. In other words, the parties demonstratively separate politics from the trade in energy resources.
Second, Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation also has a certain glass ceiling. Baku’s key ally, despite all the mutual benefits of working with Moscow, is now Ankara, and this situation is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. The pro-Turkish part of the Azerbaijani elite is extremely strong. Moreover, Turkey can now give Azerbaijan much more than Russia. “Turkey is a conduit for Azerbaijani interests in Europe, NATO and any structures where Turkey has influence,” explains Kamran Hasanov.
In addition, Baku maintains close relations with Kyiv. It is no coincidence that the Ukrainian delegation supported the Azerbaijani colleagues in PACE. Finally, it is worth understanding that the political whipping of Azerbaijan in Europe increases the pro-Western sentiments among the Armenian population – and accordingly decreases the pro-Russian ones. The West is trying hard to separate Armenia from Russia, and for the sake of improving relations with Yerevan, it is ready to demonstratively criticize Baku. Washington, Paris and Brussels are doing everything possible to reformat Armenian society and convince it of the need to leave all Russian integration structures.
The West, to use the language of Chinese tricks, is trying to trade a brick for jasper. In other words, to abandon political ties with Baku in order to gain an Armenian bridgehead against Iran and Russia in the South Caucasus.
It cannot be said that Azerbaijan supports this intention of Europe, Baku simply no longer needs such deep political relations with the European Union. The costs of remaining in PACE have become higher for Baku than the possible gains. However, there is no doubt that relations with Russia are more valuable to Azerbaijan than relations with Europe. Baku will maintain a delicate balance of interests in the South Caucasus, regardless of the presence of its representatives in PACE.
Translation: V. Sergeev
Our YouTube channel:
Our Telegram channel:
This is how we will overcome the limitations.
Share on your profiles, with friends, in groups and on pages.
#dispute #Baku #Brussels #affects #Russias #interests