The coronavirus outbreak has swept across the world due to a “perfect storm” of conditions and hardly ever happened, according to a new study.
Scientists at the University of Arizona have found that the virus is spreading rapidly in China due to the cramped conditions of the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan and a “chance or two.”
The team, which investigated how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated across China before its discovery, also found that the virus had not infected the first human until October 2019.
It comes after the theory that Covid-19 was leaked by a Wuhan lab was dropped by WHO experts investigating the origins of the pandemic this week.
The study found that the coronavirus has spread to China due to the tight conditions in the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan and a “perfect storm” of conditions.
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Michael Worobey, professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona, told CNN: “It was a perfect storm – we now know it took a lucky break or two to take hold.
“If things had been a little different, if the first person who brought this to Huanan market decided not to go that day, or was even too sick to go and just stayed home, this or some other early super-spread events may not have happened.
“We may never even have known.
Mr Worobey said the Wuhan market was where the virus had started to spread and most likely amplified rather than the birthplace of Covid-19.
He added: “What may have happened here is that the virus spread to a very small number of people in October, November and December, and then it entered this fruit market in Huanan Sea. “
During their study, the researchers analyzed how the virus began to spread to humans across China, reported the first cases of the outbreak, and also looked at the genetic makeup of the virus.
They also analyzed the evolutionary dynamics of the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in China.
Scientists have discovered that the virus could not have circulated in the country before October 2019 and that only a dozen people were infected between October and December.
The researchers also added that if the virus had emerged in a rural community, it would have been necessary to migrate to an urban environment to establish itself.
Medical staff wear personal protective equipment when patients arrive at Wuhan Red Cross Hospital
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Staff prepare to transfer Covid-19 patients to central China’s Hubei province
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In their report, the team wrote: “Even though all of the first documented cases of COVID-19 were found in Hubei province, we cannot rule out the possibility that the index case initially acquired the virus elsewhere.
“Nonetheless, our dating inference is insensitive to geography. In addition, our results suggest that if the virus first appeared in a rural community, it should have migrated to an urban setting to avoid its extinction.
“The lack of reports of COVID-19 elsewhere in China in November and early December suggests that Hubei province is where the chains of human-to-human transmission were first established. “
The findings come after Chinese scientist Liang Wannian told state media that the theory that the virus was leaked by a Wuhan lab was deemed “extremely unlikely” and would not be investigated further developed by the WHO.
The WHO said the report was not yet complete, but Mr. Wannian, the head of the Chinese wing of the panel, said the results were the “consensus” of the WHO and Chinese scientists.
“Future missions to research the origins of viruses will no longer focus on this area, unless there is new evidence,” Liang said.
Mr. Liang said in his interview that “the virus is of natural origin”, saying “it is extremely unlikely that the outbreak was caused by a laboratory leak.”
He said the experts had visited the institute of virology at the center of the laboratory leak theory and claimed to have had “sincere and deep communication” with experts.
“After their field visits and study, the team of experts unanimously agreed that it is extremely unlikely that the virus will leak from the lab,” Liang said.
“Future research missions for the origins of viruses will therefore no longer focus on this area, unless there is new evidence. “
Liang Wannian, head of the Chinese wing of the expert group, said experts agreed it was “extremely unlikely” that the coronavirus was leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan
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Wuhan Institute of Virology (pictured) has come under scrutiny after the virus emerged
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The eagerly awaited report is expected to examine a range of theories on how the virus passed from animals to humans – bats among the prime suspects.
But Washington and others have touted theories that the outbreak was caused not by nature but by a leak or an accident at a secret Wuhan virology lab.
The Trump administration has claimed power in recent days that some laboratory researchers fell ill in the fall of 2019, before the first cases were confirmed.
But China has always denied these suggestions and sought to cast doubt on the origin of the virus in Wuhan.
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