Nobody will deny that it was a challenge: negotiating a full trade agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom in less than a year. The process has become even more difficult due to the coronavirus, so that a hard Brexit seems to be one step closer.
Negotiations between Brussels and London have been stalled for a few weeks now. The virus has forced the two parties to video conferences, but they have so far not got off the ground.
Last week there was an extra problem: top negotiator Michel Barnier of the EU announced via Twitter that he had also tested positive for the virus and is in self-isolation. His British counterpart David Frost is also at home because of corona symptoms.
The virus thus delays, while the clock keeps ticking. After all, there must be an agreement before the end of this year. Then the transition period ends; the period between Brexit and the new relationship, in which the UK still applies European rules to facilitate the transition for companies.
What makes it even more complicated is a wish from the Boris Johnson government. The prime minister wants to see “a broad outline” of a trade deal at the end of June. If not, the government will have to decide whether the UK should still focus on negotiations or fully prepare for an orderly end to the transition period.
Hard Brexit seems more likely
In short, there was not much time to reach a trade agreement and the corona virus means that both camps are losing even more valuable time.
It is therefore becoming more plausible that the two camps will not be able to reach an agreement before the end of the year. This would result in the British saying goodbye without a trade deal, the disaster scenario with the greatest economic damage.
Extend transition period? No, says Johnson
And so there is an urgent appeal from British business to extend the transition period to prevent a hard Brexit. However, the Johnson government does not want to do that. The prime minister, who has also been killed by the corona virus, told journalists last week that this option has been “banned” and he has no intention of changing the law.
One of the reasons for this is that the British still have to contribute to the European multi-year budget that runs from 2021 to 2027, something that it is difficult for Johnson to sell to his constituents. The question is whether these costs outweigh the possible impact of a hard Brexit on the British economy, which is already being hit hard by the corona crisis.
Negotiations will resume on Monday, but the eyes are on June 30, the umpteenth deadline in the Brexit process and the deadline for the British Prime Minister to request postponement of the transition period.
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