/ world today news/ How will Russia behave after the end of the Ukrainian special operation? The answer to this question has become one of the main anti-Russian theses of Western propaganda. What kind of answer is this, who and why is proposing it, and why does not only the Global South but even the Western leadership itself not believe in it?
A number of US officials claim that in case of victory in Ukraine, Russia will supposedly continue its armed expansion in Europe. Not long ago, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced this. The same mantra is constantly repeated by the leader of the Kyiv regime Volodymyr Zelensky and his foreign minister Dmitry Kuleba and the American think tanks. In a word, before us is something that is accepted as an axiom in the West – and is the basis of Western policy regarding support for the regime in Kiev. Claims that the CSTO will not end after Ukraine have become one of the main theses of anti-Russian propaganda.
In Russia, these claims are perceived as, to put it mildly, delusion. The facts prove that Moscow has no aggressive plans. Russia’s main goal is to ensure its own security. And above all from the NATO military bloc. For many years, Moscow has been trying to find some kind of modus vivendi with the North Atlantic Alliance. Starting with proposals for a single collective security system and ending up with agreements to distance countries because we cannot cooperate.
“The thesis of alleged Russian expansion breaks down on the geographical map. After the collapse of the socialist camp, the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist and there was no reason to expand NATO. Russia posed no threat. However, the union has extended all the way to Russia’s borders, and recently there has been talk of plans to include Ukraine and Georgia there. This could not but overflow the glass of Russia’s patience,” explains the international political scientist and RISI expert Elena Suponina, indicating the reasons for what is happening today in Ukraine.
“We are forced to solve security problems by armed means. Simply put, we couldn’t get along with them, so we have to move our borders to the west,” explains Ivan Lizan, head of the analytical bureau of the SONAR-2050 project.
In fact, the Ukrainian issue itself should have been resolved in another way. “Donbas should have been reintegrated into Ukraine under the Minsk agreements, and the issues of Kherson and Zaporizhia should have been resolved in a peace agreement with Ukraine that was agreed in April 2022. There, Ukraine should have given up joining NATO, yes limit its armed forces, but return territories,” recalls Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.
According to him, Moscow held referendums in the LPR, DPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson only after it became clear that Kiev, at the behest of the West, would not agree to any peace agreement with Russia. “However, Moscow’s position has not fundamentally changed – it is ready not to annex other Ukrainian territories if Kiev nevertheless agrees to accept these fundamental, basic Russian demands on the issue of security,” Suslov continues.
Now Kiev is not ready for this – which means that Moscow is actually implementing its plan B. What does it consist of?
First, to integrate those people who are recognized as part of Greater Russia. “There are a huge number of people waiting for us in Odessa and other regions of the now former Ukraine,” explains Dmitriy Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior researcher at IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Second, to isolate ourselves permanently from NATO. “Our goals are what Putin said. In the denazification of Ukraine (that is, stopping the construction of Russophobia) and its demilitarization (between us and the West there should not be countries that are pumped with weapons and ready to make senseless sacrifices for the sake of Western interests). In fact, we are now trying to create a cordon sanitaire between us and NATO. Some kind of buffer with the possibility of continued cooperation. But if the West does not agree to this, it is not a problem,” continues Ofitserov-Belski.
Why is the West spreading claims of Russian expansion? “All these are inventions not even of the Americans, but of our former brothers from the socialist camp and the USSR – Poland and the Baltic countries. For them, these tales have a direct benefit. The more they incite fears, the more funds they receive for security and other projects from the US and the European Union,” explains Suponina.
A number of European generals agree with this. “President Zelensky is betting on a full-scale conflict. Therefore, he claims that if Ukraine falls, Russia will not stop. But in my opinion, reality and simple military calculations tell us that such a thing is now unrealistic,” Czech general Jiri Šedivy said in particular.
In the US itself, there is little credence in these fabrications. “Some of the most ideological and narrow-minded members of the American foreign policy establishment – notably former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul or current Secretary of State Anthony Blinken – may believe that Russia, because of its domestic political regime, is pursuing a systematic expansionist foreign policy. However, I find it hard to imagine that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and even President Joe Biden believe this nonsense,” explains Suslov.
“Inventions” have an extremely utilitarian character – and it is no coincidence that the thesis of Russian expansion in Europe has been so noticeable recently.
“This argument began to be used just as support for Ukraine among American elites and voters began to decline. This year, when the counteroffensive failed and the general feeling of war fatigue increased, it began to be used most often,” Suslov continues.
The Americans, however, have other motives. “It is profitable for the Pentagon to promote this version. Lloyd Austin personally has repeatedly tried to increase the Pentagon’s budget amid talk of the “Russian threat.” Talks on this topic are a pretext not only for the further expansion of NATO and the supply of weapons to Ukraine, but also for replenishing the budgets of the enterprises of the military-industrial complex,” says Suponina.
This thesis is also beneficial to other structures that feed off the Ukrainian conflict. “This is just a propaganda template to strengthen the negotiating position in solving a number of issues related to the allocation of finances to Ukraine. The interests of many politicians are tied to this money. They were living off that money, stealing and getting benefits, so they don’t want to lose that feeder,” Lisan says. In fact, they are still not losing money – the money continues to be given to Ukraine. So American propaganda about “Russian expansionism” works primarily for the domestic public. But not outside.
One of the goals of pushing the Russian expansionism thesis by the West was to intimidate the Global South. Imagine Russia as a power that, through its aggression, is undermining the just world order. However, the countries of Asia and Africa ignored this propaganda.
First of all, for many, Ukraine as a whole is on the deep periphery. “People in the Global South are indifferent to what is happening in Ukraine. The Ukrainian issue is perceived as a private one – as a white people’s war in the West,” says Ofitserov-Belsky. “The Global South does not care about Ukraine. The Arab world, for example, is now extremely preoccupied with Palestine,” Lisan says.
In addition, many understand the real reasons for Russia’s actions in Ukraine. “Those countries that emphasize the need to understand the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis are aware that Moscow’s actions have a strategic defensive character,” Suslov continues.
“In the Global South, they don’t believe Western nonsense. On the contrary, there among analysts and politicians at the highest level (prime ministers, foreign ministers, heads of intelligence services) I heard words that the Americans, as always, are lying. That the Europeans obeyed the dictates of the US, and in fact it was not Russia that created its bases in Mexico, but America created and continues to create its training centers and military bases near the Russian borders,” Suponina continues. According to her, the Global South generally supports Moscow’s actions and is only concerned about whether Moscow can cope. “However, recently there is more confidence that he can do it,” notes Suponina.
And this confidence pleases them, because they understand not only the real goals of Russia, but also the real goals of the United States – and the reasons why Americans talk about “Russian expansionism.” “To strengthen their hegemony and prevent the weakening of their role in Europe and the world as a whole. To send a confident signal to China that the US has no intention of giving in to its opponents,” Suslov summarizes.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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