The 2024 presidential election has entered a critical countdown. Investors are looking forward to the arrival of the “election market”, which can drive the Taiwan stock market to the “80,000” mark. Is there an election market? Is it still too late to enter the venue and lay out the card slots? Su Haoyi, general manager of the Chailease Fund Platform, pointed out that looking back at the seven presidential elections from 1996 to 2020, the election market does exist. Most of them will appear after the election, and the probability of an increase is as high as 80%.
Chailease Fund said that the Taiwan stock market is approaching 18,000, and most of the “election prices” are after the election. Picture/taken from Getty Images (mohd izzuan via Getty Images)
“Before the election” and “after the election” are actually two different things. Su Haoyi pointed out that from the perspective of historical data, the probability and rate of increase in Taiwanese stocks are not obvious 3 months and 1 month before the election. Taiwanese stocks will even reach a relatively low point 7 days before the election. On the contrary, it is a “vote of thanks” after the election. The market has become more prosperous. Data shows that the probability of Taiwan stocks rising 30 days after the election is about 80%, with an average increase of about 7%, and there is also a nearly 61% probability of rising 90 days after the election. It can be seen that the election market has a high probability of happening in “After the election”, investors can take a positive view of the Taiwan stock market in the first quarter of next year, but they must pay attention to the development of cross-strait relations and the trend of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy after the election.
Su Haoyi further explained that global economic growth will slow down in 2024 and is expected to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. At that time, the depreciation of the US dollar will be beneficial to the performance of emerging market assets, and the capital market of Taiwan stocks will take shape accordingly. Supplemented by the industrial changes driven by AI, it is expected that Promoting the mainstream of technology in the next decade and driving the growth of semiconductors, Taiwan’s electronics industry plays an important role in the supply chain and will lead the Taiwan stock market to a new pattern. Considering that the shock may intensify after the Taiwan stock market enters a high-end range, investors are advised to divide into batches Lay out Taiwan stock funds.
Su Haoyi also shared that in the volatile market conditions, active funds are better able to take advantage of the situation when picking stocks. Since the beginning of this year, Taiwan stock funds have also delivered results that are not inferior to ETFs. At the same time, the Chailease Fund Platform has also observed that in the past, platform mother and child funds In the ranking of the top ten funds for subscription, overseas funds generally account for more than half. However, starting from the second half of this year, domestic investment trust funds began to account for half of the list. It can be seen that more and more platform members know how to make good use of “Chailease Mother-Son Lock” GO”‘s trading function of automatic recurring compound interest can easily catch up with the AI Taiwan stock express market.
2023-12-25 02:28:07
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