As Thailand gears up for its general election on March 24, many are watching with interest to see how the results might affect Myanmar’s relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Given the recent turmoil in Myanmar, including the ongoing Rohingya crisis and concerns over the country’s democratic progress, Thailand’s election could potentially sway the direction of ASEAN’s engagement with Myanmar in the near future. In this article, we will delve into the potential implications of the Thai election on Myanmar and ASEAN, and what this could mean for the region as a whole.
The ASEAN has been under immense pressure to resolve the Myanmar crisis, and the upcoming Thai general election could prove to be a decisive factor in determining the bloc’s actions and the country’s future. Since the Myanmar military overthrew the country’s democratic leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, more than two years ago, the ASEAN has struggled to implement its peace initiative, the Five-Point Consensus (5PC). However, Thailand’s alleged support for the Myanmar junta has impeded the consensus-led 10-nation bloc.
The ASEAN’s inability to resolve the political crisis in Myanmar has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with millions of people displaced and thousands killed. Therefore, the upcoming Thai general election could be a game-changer for the country’s future. With the military-backed Palang Pracharath Party (PPP) likely to win the election, it is believed that its relationship with the Myanmar junta could impact how the ASEAN handles the situation in the future.
The PPP’s ties to the Myanmar junta are rooted in its former prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha’s, warm relationship with Myanmar’s military leaders. It is believed that Prayuth’s government has refrained from criticizing the junta for fear of jeopardizing its own interests in the region. Consequently, the PPP’s victory in the upcoming elections could lead to more significant influence for the Myanmar junta in the ASEAN, as Thailand is set to assume the ASEAN chairmanship in 2022.
Further, the PPP’s victory could also give the Myanmar junta a blank check in the ASEAN. Thailand’s leadership in the regional bloc could mean that the Myanmar junta will have a freer hand to clamp down on dissent and suppress humanitarian efforts within the country. It is a matter of concern, as the ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus has failed to persuade the junta to release political prisoners and allow humanitarian aid to reach the people in need.
In conclusion, the upcoming Thai general election could have far-reaching consequences for the ASEAN and Myanmar’s future. The PPP’s victory in the polls could lead to closer ties between the Thai government and the Myanmar junta, which could impact the ASEAN’s handling of the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. With millions of people trapped in a humanitarian crisis, the ASEAN needs to find a way forward and act decisively to ensure peace and stability in the region.
