A striking warning from a US top commander in the Senate: there is a good chance that China will invade Taiwan within six years. The words of Admiral Philip Davidson impress, but are they realistic?
In any case, the American’s warning should be taken seriously, says Alessio Patalano, East Asian security expert at King’s College London. “And I say that not only because such an admiral says so, but because of the observable steps that China has taken since the re-election of Taiwanese President Tsai in early 2020.”
Exercises and patrols
The Chinese Air Force and Navy have been operating more and more since then exercises and patrols from in the Taiwan Strait and around the islands claimed by Taiwan. “These activities are not only more common, but have become more complex, using advanced spy planes, fighters and bombers,” said Patalano.
Tensions between China and Taiwan intensified during President Trump’s tenure, who tightened US-Taiwan relations and the sale of military equipment to Taipei screwed up considerably.
Taiwan itself said it stayed be open for dialogue with China, but as discussion partners on an equal footing with each other.
The muscles of China
Those positions of Taipei and Washington are at odds with Beijing’s one-China policy. China sees Taiwan as a renegade province that must eventually be reunited with the mainland.
Two years ago said Chinese President Xi Jinping said that Taiwan should and would belong to China and that he kept the option open to use “all necessary means”. Since then, the language from China has not softened.
For decades, China was mainly turned inward, but that time now seems to be over, correspondent Sjoerd den Daas explained last year:
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