“Suppose Russia organizes provocations on the Spitsbergen islands, the Norwegian archipelago… This will be a challenge for those NATO members who have interests in the Arctic,” is how Swedish Army Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi describes LIGA.net one of the scenarios in which Russia could try to split NATO and spark a war in Europe.
And he adds: everything depends on the success (or lack thereof) of Russians in Ukraine.
Paasikivi is the grandson of the seventh President of Finland (1946-1956). His mother is Estonian, whose family was forced to flee the Soviet occupation. He himself, a Finnish citizen, was born in Stockholm and made a career in the Swedish army. He was the head of the intelligence and security group in the military intelligence and security service at headquarters.
Paasikivi currently teaches at the Swedish Defense University.
He is considered one of the most authoritative analysts on issues of Russian aggression; he navigates the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield absolutely freely. He is also very familiar with the context of Russian aggression in the Baltic and Scandinavian countries.
Why Russia never calls the “kind seizure” of foreign territories an occupation, how it happened that joining NATO does not guarantee security, and why the Europeans themselves need Ukraine’s support – Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi said in an interview LIGA.net.
“We are the eastern front against the Russian threat”
– European countries are changing their attitude towards Russian aggression. There seem to be fewer and fewer “doves of peace” left in EU politics. Why?
– There was a powerful feeling that Russia’s aggressive position was intensifying, and that there was a real threat. At least we in northern Europe perceive Russia as an immediate threat.
One can debate rather about the time period. If the situation in Ukraine worsens, this will mean either a freezing of the conflict or a victory for Russia. The second seems very unlikely to me.
Now everything that the Russian military-industrial complex produces is used in Ukraine. If Russia can once again focus on rebuilding its military capabilities, they will have a surplus of military equipment and personnel. And the question will arise: how quickly can the Russians attack us?
“Estonians say three to five years. German think tanks say six to ten. But the problem is not when the Russians will be ready, but when we will be ready. European armed forces need to increase their capabilities to be ready” earlier Russians.”
Sweden escaped the horrors of World War II. In my opinion, it was just a coincidence. We are used to thinking that war can happen anywhere, but not here. Now the defense chief and government ministers admit: no, war can come to Sweden. Not tomorrow. But we are not guaranteed against it. That’s why we rushed to join NATO, we rush to increase our capabilities and develop common defense.
– Joint defense in the northern region of Europe?
– Yes, the Baltic Sea and Arctic region. We stand in the way of an old threat. NATO was created to contain and defend against the Soviet Union. Now we return to the same threat, but under a different name – Russia. We are no longer talking about the Iron Curtain in Central Europe. The threat has moved north.
Of course, everything depends on the success (or lack thereof) of Russians in Ukraine. While Ukraine is struggling, Russia is a lesser problem for us. If we leave Ukraine to die, we will have to fight ourselves.
“The Russians are not occupying. They are ‘kindly returning’
– Does Sweden take the Russian threat more seriously than other European countries, because you are simply geographically closer to it?
– Yes. But not only because of the geographical location, but also because of the ambitions of Russia during the dictatorship Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin is intensifying talk about “traditionally Russian lands.” Finland was part of Russia between 1809 and 1917. The Baltic countries were occupied after World War II. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have fairly large Russian-speaking minorities. And let’s just say that at least some of them have questionable loyalties. This is also a problem.
“The Russians never conquer or occupy. They “kindly return” and “administer.”
– How ready is Northern Europe for Russian aggression now?
– Finland – more or less. They never disbanded their army and are well provided for. They even took a certain risk by exporting part of their own reserves to Ukraine. But they seem to be quite comfortable.
The Baltic countries say that Russia is alone [в своей агрессии]. And if Ukraine defeats it, it will not pose a threat to them. Therefore, they are making a lot of efforts to support Ukraine.
We in Sweden also, of course, support Ukraine. But our own defensive forces are like a military bonsai. Nice. Good looking. Well preserved. But very small.
Therefore, we need to increase the number of weapons. Can we do it faster than the Russians? What volumes do we need? This is something that needs to be discussed in Brussels after we join NATO.
“If we’re not ready in five years, we’ll definitely be late. Even if we’re not ready in three years, we’ll be late.”
We cannot sit back and hope that Russia will take time to recover. We will be perceived as weak. Russia will take big risks if it perceives the West as weak.
There are different scenarios for the split of NATO. Here are the first two
– If Russia decides to attack one of the NATO countries, how do you assess the chances of the parties? What can hold them back?
– If NATO is united, the Russians will lose.
But there are some nuances. Such a development of events could escalate into a global nuclear war. It would have been a pretty bad day for everyone. Nobody wants this. Therefore, Russia is using the threat of nuclear global or intercontinental retaliation to try to split NATO. If NATO has no cohesion, there is no Article 5.
– How can the Russians try to split NATO?
– There are different scenarios, more or less probable.
My favorite option: Russia puts pressure on the Svalbard islands in the Arctic. This is the Norwegian archipelago. It is demilitarized. Both Russia and Norway have certain economic activities there. There is an old convention to regulate the state of affairs.
If the Russians try to stage provocations on Svalbard – which they started talking about several years ago – this will be a challenge for those members of the Alliance who have interests in the Arctic: the USA, Canada, Britain, the Scandinavian countries. But will this become a problem for Turkey? For Montenegro? For the rest of the Alliance? This could become one of the ways to put pressure on NATO and an attempt to split it.
– What other options could there be?
– Another option is a lightning attack on the Baltic countries combined with serious nuclear threats. In a war with individual European countries or a group of European countries, the Russians have a better chance than against the entire Alliance with the support of the United States.
“The greatest risk is NATO, which does not inspire confidence. Now we have a fairly reliable Alliance. The question is what will happen after January 2025.”
With the new US President. With the Hungarian Prime Minister Orban and the Slovak Prime Minister Ficorepeating [идеи] Putin in the European Union and NATO. The question is whether we will be united or not.
If we are united and Russia attacks a NATO country, it will lose. Perhaps with nuclear escalation, but he will lose. It is a fact.
If they manage to do something below NATO’s “pain threshold” and we do not unite, they will have a much better chance.
Previously, they “fought” with Bogoland. Now this is Russia
– It seems that you do not perceive Russian threat scenarios as something abstract or distant.
– We use these scenarios in military education in Sweden and in planning. So they are quite specific, yes.
Earlier [на военных учениях] we practiced legends using examples of some fictional countries with names like “Bogoland”. But now in the Swedish armed forces (to some extent in other European countries too) we are talking directly about real Russia and its capabilities, and not about a fictional nation.
NATO still uses fictitious names of states during exercises, but geographically they are very similar to Russia. Now these are real exercises to counter a real threat for which we must be prepared.
– How do ordinary Swedes react to the Russian threat?
– The public reaction resembles a sharp awakening in awareness of the very possibility of war. More dramatic than in neighboring countries that were already at war with the Russians or were under their occupation.
The media also supports the idea that we were unprepared. I’m not entirely sure this is true. In 2018, all Swedish families received a memo with what to do in case of an emergency or war. There are step-by-step instructions, including a food checklist and everything you need to survive the first 72 hours of armed conflict.
It’s not that we were unprepared as a society. Each of us is individually unprepared for the idea that war is something that could actually happen to us. Now we are on the path of this awareness.
– How do you assess the situation in Ukraine now?
– The Russians are pressing, but I’m not sure that they will have any more significant achievements in the near future. Ukraine is successfully waging a strategic and operational fight in Crimea and Russia. It won’t win the war this year. But it’s important.
“Ukraine needs some kind of big technological breakthrough. I think such a breakthrough could be electronic warfare in combination with drones and airplanes.”
If you can’t move from positional to maneuver warfare, then we risk a protracted war like the one that lasted between 2014 and 2022. But with a new front line.
The main thing now is the support of the West. And we must understand our benefits well. If we don’t support Ukraine, we harm ourselves.
Read also
2024-04-07 07:00:18
#Russians #occupy #kindly #return #Swedish #Army #Lieutenant #Colonel #Ukrainian #News
