The battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut seems to be nearing its end after more than six months. There is still fighting for every meter, but Russian soldiers can now be seen in the streets of the devastated city. Yet Bakhmut is still in Ukrainian hands. Why has this place been fought so hard for so many months?
Why is Bakhmut so important?
That is precisely the striking thing: there is no great strategic importance. The city has been completely razed to the ground and there were already no important factories that could be of military importance.
In terms of location, there are small advantages for the Russians. For example, there are connections between Bakhmut and the larger cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Those are the last major cities in Donetsk that are in Ukrainian hands.
Those cities should be especially careful if the Russians manage to advance a little further after the conquest of Bakhmut. Then the Russian artillery gets them in their sights.
What other reason does Russia have to take Bakhmut?
The Russians yearn for victory in the war. The last one dates from months ago. In July 2022, the Russians managed to seize the strategically located eastern Ukrainian city of Lysychansk.
Then it took until January for the Russians to celebrate another (small) victory, with the capture of Soledar, near Bakhmut. In that period in between, only Ukraine managed to record victories.
For the battle at Bakhmut, the Kremlin deploys the Wagner Group. That is a notorious mercenary army of Yevgeny Prigozhin. There is also a lot at stake for him: Prigozhin has been critical of the Russian army command since the beginning of the war and is said to have promised that his mercenaries will take the city for President Vladimir Putin.
Keeping that promise is difficult. That led to more resentment between Wagner and the Kremlin. For example, Prigozhin claimed last week that the Russian Defense Ministry is “sabotaging” its troops by not sending ammunition. The Kremlin denies that.
1:41What can Ukraine do in an encircled, devastated city?
For Ukraine, the situation in Bakhmut has gotten worse and worse. The city is now surrounded from three sides. Defending the city has also become increasingly difficult, because almost all shelters have been destroyed.
Yet a journalist saw Reuters this week that the Ukrainians make no move to leave. In fact, the British Ministry of Defense reported on Saturday that Kyiv has sent elite troops to the area to support the remaining defenders.
The Ukrainians have only one goal: to inflict as much damage on Russia as possible before the city falls. In the Russian drive to take Bakhmut, countless – often poorly trained – soldiers are sent to Ukrainian defense lines. Hundreds of them die every day.
That is not to say that Ukraine is not suffering losses. The Russians want to use their ‘human wave’ tactic to map defense locations and then bomb them. As a result, many Ukrainian soldiers are also injured or killed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky risks image damage. He has promised that Bakhmut will not fall into Russian hands. “Bakhmut perseveres,” he says during almost every speech these days. But Zelensky also recently said that Ukraine will not defend the city “at all costs”.
He will find it more important that the defenses of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk can be prepared to perfection during the months-long battle for Bakhmut.
1:10Is the fall of Bakhmut near?
Military analysts call the battle for Bakhmut “extremely tense”. Ukrainian troops are hemmed in from three sides and so there would be only one way out to withdraw. But Zelensky would now use that very road to bolster the remaining defenses.
Still, a withdrawal in the near future seems likely. One of Zelensky’s advisers, Alexander Rodnyansky, countered on Thursday CNN that the Ukrainian army is constantly assessing whether it is still worth (and losing) to stay in Bakhmut. “And we’re not going to question their judgment.”
