How much is the impact of ‘retail’ from the 2021 ‘COVID-19’ crisis?

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How was “retail business” affected by the COVID-19 crisis? Is the year 2021 still heavy? Shining positive factors, negative factors

I have to admit that the last year of 2020 has been a tough year for many people and businesses. Must be temporarily shut down due to the lockdown, control and prevention of COVID-19 measures. The epidemic crisis that occurred No one was able to set himself up and didn’t know how to act. Including still not knowing the end of when it will end Although some businesses will be able to adapt to some extent But also called asthma.

Back in late March 2020, when the epidemic widened, the state announced Lock down and curfew The effect As many people expected. “Government Savings Bank Research Center “ Point out that In April 2020, the retail index dropped 29.25%, mainly due to durable goods. Especially the retail shop for Thai handicraft products and souvenirs Clothing, shoe, leather goods and textile retailers

At the same time retail stores The mail order and the Internet retail sales have grown exponentially. Expand more than double Especially in May 2020, the index grew 155%.

But businesses that take advantage of this crisis are not for everyone because Retail operator Of Thailand, more than 8.95 lakhs are small businesses (Micro) out of all 9.05 lakh entrepreneurs competing in the same market. Among capital constraints And when the COVID-19 crisis Enter to aggravate The more the impact on the liquidity And unable to adapt When it comes to technology The image that we see is unable to adapt and it is gradually closing down.

When going to delve into the big retail business operators In business groups listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand such as the Central Group Seven Eleven, Big C, and Makro during the first nine months (January – September) of 2020 contracted than the same period last year. Income plummeted from the impact of COVID-19 Except “Makro” which expanded economic garden

– Central Group Total income10.36% decrease With a decrease in income for all business groups Especially in fashion and food groups As well as lower rental income

– Seven Eleven Total income7.52% decrease This was mainly due to the decrease in sales and service income. As a result, business plans have to be adjusted to more online channels and delivery.

– Big C Total income9.86% decrease This was mainly due to the decrease in sales growth per store. Likewise, rental income dropped as a result of a discount on rent. And the occupancy rate still hasn’t returned 100%

– Makro Total incomeExpansion 4.35% This is the result of the opening of new branches both at home and abroad in a total of 6 branches, including from various developments. Both branches, products and services are in line with changing consumer behavior and needs, such as developing O2O sales channels and e-payment.

Even in the third quarter of 2020, the overall situation has improved. But the bright light must dim. When a new outbreak returns to Thailand again in December 2020, Mood shopping during New Year’s Eve. Welcome the new year

.. So what is the trend of retail business in 2021?

“Government Savings Bank Research Center” Had predicted that In the first quarter of 2021, the retail business will contract strongly. If more infected people are found and spread to many provinces If the epidemic situation can be controlled within a short period of time during the second quarter, it will see a resurgence. But today is not in that direction. The government announced a lockdown in some provinces. Including more stringent measures It is expected that the retail business will contract by double digits, the same as in 2020.

The main effects Heading to the retail chains selling fresh food Dry food and seasonings Including clothing stores The costume And grocery stores in the fresh market and flea market area This also includes some sit-in restaurants, such as grilled shabu or sukiyaki.

tribute Positive factor Still falling to the retail business of health-related goods and equipment And e-commerce group And food delivery

However, still have to keep an eye on “4 risk factors” That will affect the retail business as follows

1. The spread of the COVID-19 virus. A new wave in the country If the drag is longer or more intense Will have a heavy impact on retail operators Especially those entrepreneurs who have little working capital or burden of high expenses.

2.Purchasing power of consumers Especially middle to lower income consumers Still under pressure from the economic slowdown

3. Quite a lot of competition Both competition from the same retail business and cross-type retail businesses such as hypermarkets expand cross-segment investment into convenience store businesses.

4. Modern trade retailer who invades online marketing. Faced with competition from small online retailers. Or SME Sold through various social media channels It also has to face competition challenges of foreign operators such as China and South Korea to enter the online marketplace as e-marketplace in Thailand.

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