How many ways can the Ukrainian war go out in 2023?

Regardless of which direction the war is heading, how will “world order” be shaken to cause major changes?

All these questions are important for all Thais because it doesn’t matter what “scene” of the war comes up. they are all affecting Thailand directly or indirectly

I divide the analytical approach into two main lines… People who support Putin and people who support Zelenskyj.

For Those Who Hoped Russia Would Lose It Analysts in this area predict that major fighting will take place in the spring after winter.

And Russia’s decision to launch a major war early next year will be key to setting the course of the war.

There are some lessons from the past.

Napoleon, Hitler and Stalin all had to conspire to maneuver their armies in the face of a cold winter.

In the case of the Ukrainian war, after 11 months of fighting, both sides needed a break.

But analysts skeptical of Zelensky say Ukraine is better prepared.

and have morale and motivation to keep going

And hope that the Ukrainian army can continue to press the Russian troops on many fronts … at least the battlefield in the east is Donbass.

Some military analysts say that around the eastern cities of Kreminna and Swatov, the Ukrainian military has orchestrated a massive advance that would have caused Russian forces to retreat at least 60 kilometers, which means being pushed back towards the next natural defense line.

or near where the Russians had actually garrisoned since their February advance.

So it can be believed that the Ukrainian army will not stop fighting in the east. But it will probably slow down the southwestern advance after the recovery of the army in the Kherson region.

Military officials monitoring the movements of the Ukrainian part of the armed forces said the prospect of them crossing the eastern bank of the Dnipro River to put pressure on Russia’s fragile road and rail links to Crimea may be an overly positive expectation.

For this new 2023, the key factor is whether the fate of the Russian spring offensive will be successful or not.

Putin acknowledged that some 50,000 newly mobilized troops were already at the front.

But the other 250,000 who have just been mobilized are training for tomorrow’s readiness.

Both sides are talking about peace talks.

but apparently Reaching such an agreement is extremely difficult.

Because Ukraine has already announced that it will not stop shooting. Because it amounts to paving the way for Putin’s truce. Reorganize your army to attack harder than before.

Zelensky doesn’t believe Putin is sincere in his quest for peace.

And Putin is suspicious of Selensky’s attempts to use a new set of weapons from the West to escalate the fight and gain an advantage on the battlefield.

Another scene is If the battle continues the way we see it now Ukraine could recapture the territory now occupied by Russian troops.

Another Western analyst believes that Ukraine will win by restoring complete territorial integrity by spring of this year at the latest.

Does this analysis sound a little too “worldly”?

But analysts say there are at least two contributing factors.

One is the motivation, determination and courage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the people of Ukraine as a whole. This is on an unprecedented level in the history of modern warfare.

Another reason is The Western world has come to the conclusion that it must support Ukraine to win. Because if not, if Russia can successfully defeat Ukraine Europe’s power equation will be hit hard.

It was a historic challenge that Western Europe could not accept.

Reading NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s recent speech is enough to understand Western awareness of Russia today.

“The price we pay is money. while Ukrainians pay with blood If the dictatorial government sees that the troops are being rewarded for aggression We will all pay a much higher price. And the world will become a more dangerous world for all of us.”

And, of course, the inevitable timing of Ukraine’s victory will be determined by how quickly NATO can deliver Ukraine a new range of military strike weapons that can materially change the game on the battlefield.

This includes tanks, aircraft, and long-range missiles, among others.

Line analysts expect Melitopol to become the frontline of fierce fighting in the coming months or weeks.

Because if Ukrainian troops successfully occupied Melitopol, they would be able to easily move their troops to the Sea of ​​Azov.

This effectively cut off cables and communications with the Crimean peninsula, which had been occupied by Russian troops for eight years.

If this Russia will have to accept it. Putin’s “special military operation” has failed.

When Russia has not been able to win on the battlefield it has to agree to negotiate under most Ukrainian conditions

and the scene looking at this analytical view is Western countries and Ukraine will set the pattern. “Security architecture” between new countries

There are still many aspects to analyze. Continue tomorrow.