Jakarta –
Since the end of September, Ukrainian forces have successfully conducted counter-offensives in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions. Russia’s surprise retreat to the battlefield has raised tensions in the Kremlin. After the Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, concerns are growing that Russia may use nuclear weapons to counterattack.
Citing NATO sources, the British newspaper The Times recently reported that Russia is preparing for a nuclear test in the Black Sea. In addition, an online video has emerged showing a Russian military train moving towards the Ukrainian border. Presumably this is related to the affairs of the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian Defense Ministry, which is responsible for the country’s nuclear arsenal.
Small steps towards escalation
Gerhard Mangott, professor of international relations at the University of Innsbruck, said the threat of Russia using its nuclear weapons is very serious. He suspects that the military train and the mobilized submarine Belgorod (K329) may be a nuclear weapons message.
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“The Russian leadership wants to show Ukraine and Western governments that Russia is quite capable, but it may also be willing to use its nuclear weapons,” he said. “Right now, the message serves primarily to create trepidation. To signal that Ukraine must not continue its offensive and that the West must not continue to support it with weapons.”
However, he warned that if these threats fail to stop Ukraine’s retaliation, Russian President Vladimir Putin could move on to the next stage.
Mangott added that if explosions in uninhabited territory had little effect and Ukraine continued to recapture the territory, Russia might be able to use nuclear weapons tactically. “It will not be done on the front lines, but somewhere in the back, outside the inhabited urban areas of Ukraine.”
If Russian nuclear bombs on uninhabited territory do not have a deterrent effect, military expert and former Bundeswehr colonel Ralph Thiele believes Moscow could attempt to attack political and economic targets in Ukraine. “It could be an explosion that emits electromagnetic pulses and destroys everything in an electrically powered area of hundreds of square kilometers: cars, televisions, satellites, computers, power plants,” he said. “It might be an option.”
The United States warns of catastrophic consequences
Most international experts agree that a nuclear weapons test would have devastating consequences for Russia. “Even a test, which is actually a violation of the Treaty on the total ban on nuclear tests, ratified by Russia, would lead to severe economic and financial sanctions,” Mangott explained.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has warned of “catastrophic consequences”. In an interview with CBS in late September, he claimed that senior US officials had explained this to the Kremlin “in person, personally and at a very high level”.
According to Mangott, the US and NATO response will most likely be military action. He referred to former CIA Director David Petraeus, who told ABC News that the US could respond by “leading NATO – a collective effort – that will defeat any conventional Russian force we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine. as well as in Ukraine. Crimea and all ships in the Black Sea “.
Mangott suspected that such an attack would be “asymmetrical” in the sense that it would involve conventional weapons. “Putin is told not only how the West will react to a nuclear attack, but also that Russia will therefore be isolated globally and China and India will also condemn this move.”
The West must move closer to China to get support. So far, China has taken a neutral stance regarding the war in Ukraine. However, many experts agree that Beijing can help prevent Russia from launching a nuclear strike. Thiele thinks the West should do more to make China its strategic ally. “Putin is relying on China,” he said. “By further involving China, the world will have the opportunity to secure a ceasefire as a first step.”
However, he said the West should not force China to join in imposing sanctions on Russia, as that would not do Beijing any good. He explained that China was interested in ending the war in Ukraine, mainly for economic reasons, and did not want a nuclear conflict. “Our politicians actually want to keep China away from Europe because they think it will be quite difficult to deal with China in the future, both economically and globally,” said Thiele.
Crimea could become a “red line”
According to Mangott, current developments in Ukraine will eventually show whether the US alarm has a deterrent effect. He added that Crimea could become a “red line” for the Russian president.
“I can’t imagine Putin preparing himself if Ukraine recaptures Crimea. This would endanger his position and drag Putin to fall. The big question is whether Putin, to prevent defeat, can be cold-blooded and have enough power to use nuclear weapons to the extreme in such a situation, “he said. “But there is at least persistent hope that orders to deploy nuclear weapons will not be followed by those who have to implement them.”
Mangott insisted that there is currently no sign that the Russian leadership has decided to use nuclear weapons. “It hasn’t arrived yet. Nor is it at a stage where Russia is in danger of losing this war,” he said. “However, with every defeat he suffers on the battlefield, with every reconquest of the territory conquered by Russia by the Ukrainian army, there is a possibility that the situation will escalate in that direction.”
The original article is written in Russian.
See also the video: Former US adviser: Putin must be ready to commit suicide if he uses nuclear power
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