Hello thcht,
One may wonder why Emmanuel Macron set this threshold of 5,000 new confirmed cases per day to consider deconfinement. If all epidemiologists do not necessarily agree on this specific figure, it is accepted that to allow effective contact tracing, which really goes up the chains of contamination by spending time in contacting all people infected with Covid-19 and making of education, the daily number of new cases must not be too high. As such, 5,000 cases per day, which was the rate observed in France in mid-summer, seems reasonable.
However, it is clear that the president took a political risk by announcing the start of deconfinement from December 15, even under conditions. During this announcement, at the end of November, most epidemiologists, foremost among whom Jean-François Delfraissy, the president of the scientific council, did not foresee that we will reach the threshold of 5,000 cases per day before the end of December.
During the first weeks of the decline of the second wave, after the peak of November 16, the reproduction rate fell below 0.8 and gave hope for a rapid slowdown in the spread of the virus. But in recent days, this rate has been on the rise again, which indicates that contamination is resuming. This is clearly a bad sign.
But the government has not yet clearly announced what the consequences of this situation would be and is delaying it, as Jérôme Salomon’s intervention shows last night. The government considers it “premature” to worry at this stage about the Christmas holidays.
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