【2023. 2. 22 Russia】
How far is the world from nuclear war?Putin’s threat speech to “suspend US-Russian nuclear arms control agreement”
“Putin ‘suspends’ the US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement, and the risk of nuclear war has increased…?” Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a State of the Union speech in the Russian Parliament on February 21. The content maintained the consistent argument, blaming the West for the Russia-Ukraine war , but what aroused the concern of international public opinion was Putin’s statement that he would “suspend” the nuclear arms control agreement between Russia and the United States, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). Although Putin pointed out that Russia is not “completely withdrawing” from the treaty, this move has tantamount to increasing the risk of nuclear weapons expansion and nuclear war, which has worried the international community. At the same time, China’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as Xi Jinping’s possible meeting with Putin, also touched international sensitive nerves on the first anniversary of the war.
Putin delivered a State of the Union speech on February 21, which lasted about two hours. He did not talk much about the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war or the Russian military’s unfavorable situation, but spent a lot of time and words repeatedly Accusing Ukraine of becoming a “neo-Nazi”, NATO’s eastward expansion, and the West’s threat to Russia’s security, he stated that he would not change his current strategy in Ukraine, etc., as Russia has always said, Putin attributed the responsibility for the war to the United States. Western countries. Putin said in his speech:
“We are not fighting the Ukrainian people, who have become hostages to Western masters and the Kiev regime, who have effectively occupied Ukraine.”
In his State of the Union speech, Putin also threatened that if the US military conducts nuclear weapons tests, the Russian military will also resume nuclear tests and explosions. At present, there is no evidence in the world that the United States has conducted such tests, but Putin’s direct accusations in his speech have made the outside world worry whether Putin will use the “existence of nuclear tests by the US military” as an excuse for Russia’s possible nuclear weapons expansion paving.
What worries the international community most about Putin’s speech is that it expressly intends to “suspend” the last nuclear non-proliferation agreement between the United States and Russia——new strategic arms reduction treaty——thus arousing high tension among countries. The content of the treaty requires the United States and Russia to communicate regularly on the status of their arsenals, specify the upper limit of the number of offensive arms and nuclear weapons on both sides (including the number of deployed and undeployed quotas), and allow the two sides to conduct regular on-site inspections of each other, Confirm that the counterparty is complying with the cap specification.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was signed in 2010 by former U.S. President Barack Obama and then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. The term of former US President Trump expired, and the Trump administration once refused to extend the negotiations, but the Biden administration signed a five-year extension agreement after taking office in 2021. Therefore, the current validity period should be until 2026.
The military upper limit specified in the treaty includes: the number of deployed nuclear warheads shall not exceed 1,550, the number of nuclear bomb launchers shall not exceed 800, the deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles shall not exceed 700, and the number of heavy bombers that can be equipped with nuclear weapons shall not exceed 700. More than 700.
Putin stated that he did not “completely withdraw” from the treaty. After his speech, the Russian Foreign Ministry also added that Russia respects the upper limit of nuclear weapons in the treaty and will continue to exchange information on ballistic missile tests with the United States. At that time, it stated that Russia violated the terms of the agreement and did not allow US inspectors to enter the Russian military arsenal for inspection. Therefore, it was worried that this move would undermine the feasibility of nuclear arms control on both sides.
Putin’s remarks are equivalent to breaking the stable framework for decades and increasing the risk of international military confrontation.ReutersCiting security experts, Russia’s suspension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty will complicate the peaceful status quo in which the United States and Russia maintain mutual deterrence and cast a shadow of multi-layered calculations, while other nuclear-armed countries such as China, India, and Pakistan, It is also likely to be stimulated to expand the nuclear arsenal.
William Alberque, director of arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a British think tank, pointed out that Russia has clearly believed that it can get rid of the constraints of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, but Putin intends to blame the United States for its violation of the agreement. Albuquerque fears that once the treaty’s control is lost, the United States and Russia can immediately increase the number of deployed nuclear warheads from 1,550 to 4,000 overnight – according to estimates by the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has about 5,977 nuclear warheads, while the United States has 5,428.
Although Putin’s proposal to suspend the “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” caused international tension, UN Secretary-General António Guterres and US Secretary of State Blinken (Antony Blinken) and others condemned it as “irresponsible”, but Putin The content of the whole speech was quite fragmented. He repeated the accusations made by the Kremlin internationally since the Russian army entered the Ukrainian border at the end of 2021, insisting that Western countries are “the ones who started the war, and we are using force to stop them.” , but in fact no Western troops entered Ukraine.
However, when the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the US ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy on the 21st, it seemed to follow Putin’s argument and demanded that the US withdraw “soldiers and equipment” from Ukraine – that is, the US and NATO aid Ukraine.
A few hours after Putin concluded his State of the Union speech, Biden, who was visiting Poland, also delivered a speech, urging countries around the world to reaffirm a united front in support of Ukraine, pointing out that global democracy is threatened, and accusing Russia of committing crimes against humanity. At the same time, Biden emphasized, It was Putin who “chosen” the war, “the West did not conspire to attack Russia, as Putin said.”
Biden said:
“Putin’s greed for land and power will fail, while Ukrainians’ love of country will continue to flourish.”
The content of Biden’s speech seemed to correspond to Putin’s State of the Union speech, countering Putin’s statement, but White House national security adviser Sullivan (Jake Sullivan) said that this was just a coincidence. He said that Biden had not heard or read it beforehand. Putin’s speech. Sullivan also dismissed Putin’s claim that the West was to blame for the war, responding:
“If the Russians stop attacking Ukraine and go home, the war is over. But if Ukraine stops fighting, and the U.S. and other allies stop helping them, Ukraine will disappear from the map, so I think that is enough to say who should be responsible for this war.”
Putin also said nothing about the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war and how it will end. However, other countries’ worries about the war situation, in addition to the threat of Russia’s “suspension” of nuclear restrictions, also include China’s factors——The Wall Street Journal on February 21 “Reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to visit Russia from April to May and hold a “Xi-Pu meeting” summit with Putin, and Russia will also celebrate the “Victory Day” when it defeated Germany in World War II.
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, China has been ambiguous. Although China has called for peace, in practice it has assisted Russia in resisting the pressure of Western sanctions. “Operation” to describe the attack of the Russian army, and China has also purchased a large amount of Russian crude oil. According to the statistics of the financial consulting organization Refinitiv, from the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine in February to December 2022, China has imported a large amount of Russian oil whose price has fallen due to sanctions. The average daily imported oil, compared to before the invasion, increased45%. (Increase from 590,000 barrels per day to 857,000 barrels per day)
At present, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is on a trip to Europe and arrived in Moscow on the 21st. He reiterated that the relationship between China and Russia is “rock-solid”, which has attracted international attention at this sensitive time; Blinken publicly warned China “not to provide Russian weapons “, China expressed dissatisfaction with this warning, but “Reuters” pointed out that China has always avoided incurring Western sanctions. more favorable.
