How Donald Trump would win again, in 3 sentences

(CNN) – James Woods is that weird thing in Hollywood: a supporter of Donald Trump. And on Sunday, Woods perfectly encapsulated the message that could make Trump reelected.

He tweeted this (in part):

“Donald Trump is a tough guy. It is vain, insensitive and crude. But he loves United States more than any president in my life. “

Trump retweeted that assessment; “I think it’s a great compliment,” wrote. “Thanks James!”

Of course, it is not a great compliment. If someone called you “vain, insensitive and crude”, would you be flattered?

But Woods’ tweet is 100% correct when it comes to how Trump can win again in November.

The simple truth is that Trump was not (in 2016) and now he is not someone that most Americans say they like or admire. Consider these numbers from the 2016 polling station survey:

1) Fewer than 4 in 10 voters in 2016 said they had a favorable opinion of Trump
2) Only 1 in 3 thought Trump was honest and trustworthy
3) Only 35% said Trump had the right temperament to be president

How did Trump win? Because people had not liked it, but they wanted a radical change in Washington and they believed that he could achieve it. Four out of 10 voters said the most important quality in a candidate was one that “can bring change”; Among that group, Trump beat Clinton from 82% to 14%.

The message Woods offers for Trump in 2020 is simply a variation on that original theme. And it goes something like this: yes, he is a jerk. And no, I wouldn’t invite him to dinner at my house. But when it comes to doing things for America, there is no one better.

Now, to buy Woods’s message, you must believe that Trump has truly achieved results for Americans during his first term. His supporters would point to tax cuts, a reorientation of the role of the United States in the world community, changes in the politics commercial and the review of the federal judiciary. His detractors would suggest that all of those decisions have really done more harm than good.

However, the real question is not what people who already support Trump or who already hate Trump think: the message “he’s a jerk but he’s a jerk efficient” What really matters is whether voters who remain undecided about whether or not to give Trump a second term think about it.

Woods’ argument was easier to formulate three months ago, when unemployment was low, the stock market was skyrocketing, and Trump could credibly take credit for everything. Now, due to the massive effects of coronavirus —And the closings used to deal with its spread — that economic argument weakens significantly.

But it is still a fact that the only real path for Trump to a second term, and I still believe that path is quite narrow, is through a message that is not about making people like Trump, but forcing them to acknowledge that is achieving things.

Trump is simply not nice. He says and does things almost daily that even many of his followers think are above the acceptable course of action for a president or, indeed, for anyone.

Nothing will change that. Or certainly nothing I can do between now and November. The only way he will win is by arguing that it may not be his idea of ​​how a president should look and act, but rather someone who knows how to make changes in Washington. (You may also need to disqualify Joe Biden, for which your campaign is already working very hard.)

If that works, it would represent a fundamental change in the way we elect presidents. Conventional wisdom has always dictated that people vote for someone they want to have a beer with. In addition to his most unquestionable acolytes, it’s hard to imagine that most people want to have a beer with Trump.

But will they vote for him anyway? They did it once. And Woods (and Trump) have to wait for them to vote for “their jerk” once again.

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