The return of Donald Trump may have two different effects on European politics.
On the one hand, it may urge European countries to unify their ranks and cooperate to respond to the US preemptive policy and to withdraw US support for Ukraine.
On the other hand, it may encourage European leaders to turn inward and focus on their national interests, in an effort to deflect the threat posed by domestic Trump supporters in current governments.
In this context, Keir Starmer is trying to bring the two things together: he arrived in Budapest last Thursday to participate in the European Political Community summit, announcing agreements with Serbia, North Macedonia and Kosovo related to the issue of human smuggling, but the talk here is about the “Council.” “European Political Policy” and not the European Union, hence these three countries are not members of the European Union (yet).
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Therefore, we can say that Starmer is succeeding in his efforts to avoid the Conservatives’ accusations that he is seeking to “undo the effects of the Brexit agreement.”
It is worth noting that the “European Political Council” is an innovative initiative launched by French President Emmanuel Macron, and he envisioned the aforementioned council as a new outer layer of the European Union, similar to the multiple layers of an onion.
Its strategic goal is clearly visible, which is to create obstacles to Britain’s exit from the European Union, although its results so far show that it is an effective support tool for the British government.
It is true that Starmer talks about international support, which appeals to the pro-EU wing of his party.
However, the Council’s actual purpose is to focus on the issue of illegal immigration, and its goal is to remain away from Nigel Farage. The Prime Minister had previously adopted the same approach a few days ago, during the Interpol General Assembly meetings held in Glasgow, when he called for adopting an integrated European approach to combating crime. The organization is among the migrants, stressing the need for dealing with it to be similar to dealing with terrorism.
There is no doubt that Trump’s imminent return to the White House complicates and makes this dual strategy more difficult, and during the Budapest events, Mark Rutte, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and former Dutch Prime Minister, said, “He will force us to do more.”
It is worth noting here that NATO is not the European Union, so there is no need to fear reopening the “Brexit” file, but if Trump decides to withdraw the support provided to Volodymyr Zelensky, European countries will find themselves facing difficult and painful questions about the extent of their willingness to pay additional sums in defense of the people. Ukraine in the face of Vladimir Putin’s aggression.
In this context, Starmer addressed this question during the “Prime Minister’s Questions” session last Wednesday, when it was posed to him by the new Conservative leader, Kimmy Badenoch.
The fact is that the United Kingdom allocates a share of its national income to defense expenditures greater than that spent by any other country in NATO, with the exception of the United States. However, the Labor Party promised to increase this spending to reach 2.5 percent of GDP, without specifying A time frame for achieving this goal.
In my view, Starmer’s plan is to wait and see if Trump will follow through on his simultaneous threat and promise to end the Ukraine war from day one of his presidency.
For his part, Zelensky is betting that Trump will avoid being seen as “weak” and incapable of ensuring the continued flow of weapons, but if Trump follows through on his promises to stop funding, a major problem could ensue.
If Britain were still a member of the European Union, it would have had an opportunity to prove its leadership at a time when French President Emmanuel Macron appears weak in his country, and at a moment when the government of Olaf Schulz is faltering in Germany, and under the current circumstances, a statement issued by Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader in support of… Putin, who hosted the European Political Council summit last Thursday, made a provocative comment in which he urged the European Union to “review” the “sustainability” of its support for Ukraine.
However, the real challenge facing Trump may arise if he is serious about implementing his threat to launch a trade war by increasing tariffs [الجمركية].
It has been formed [هذه الحرب] A painful way to re-teach British voters lessons about free trade, a cycle that public opinion must go through from time to time.
Hence, tariffs are known to be popular in some periods, as they are considered a tool to protect domestic industries. But when these measures push prices up and countermeasures emerge that raise prices further, public opinion begins to absorb the benefits of free trade and understand its importance.
In turn, American public opinion experiences these cycles from time to time, as all presidential candidates promise protectionist measures during their election campaigns, but they often return to adopting more pragmatic policies in government. Indeed, even Trump was less protectionist than he claimed during his last term in the White House.
But if Trump launches a trade war that leads to a global depression, this may give greater justification for easing trade restrictions between Britain and the European Union, and at that point, Starmer will be able to overcome any hesitation in addressing what may be seen as “the beginning of the end of the effects of the agreement.” Brexit.”
Rather, it may be useful to stop for a moment and even hope for a global trade deterioration, so that we can live ironic moments, during which Trump contributes to pushing Britain to return to the embrace of the European Union.
