One of the main reasons why the Macron bloc is projected to win is the fact that the French parliamentary election system is generally favorable to the political center. In order to be elected in the first round of elections, candidates must obtain the support of more than 50% of the electorate at the same time, and must receive at least 25% of the votes of all voters in a given constituency. If both or both of these requirements are not met, which happens in the vast majority of cases (this time only five out of 577 parliamentarians were elected in the first round), a second round of elections follows, with all candidates receiving at least 12.5% of all eligible voters. support, or the two candidates who received the most votes. A simple majority is enough to become the winner of the second round of elections and, accordingly, a Member of Parliament.
As a result, the second round of the French parliamentary elections will be somewhat similar to the second round of the presidential elections, where Makron’s convincing victory was secured by the voters who voted against the right-wing candidate Marina Lepen. Only this time, supporters of Lepena and the Republicans (Les Républicains) will vote with a high degree of credibility for the centrist and the radical left-wing candidates in the second round, while the left-wing voters will vote for the centrists and the right-wing voters in the second round. will not be.
Given this factor, it is estimated that the Ensemble could win 255-310 seats in the next parliamentary term, the NUPES 150-210 seats and the Republicans 40-60 seats. On the other hand, if the Macron bloc fails to obtain the required 289-seat mandate for a majority, it will need to reach an agreement with Republicans. Moreover, in a situation where the government has been restructured less than a month earlier, and Macron has promised a series of reforms, at least some of which are serious (and essentially the only possible) coalition partners with serious claims. This situation, in turn, promises the French President both domestic and foreign policy challenges in no time.
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