The resolution of the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan opened the door to a safer and more prosperous South Caucasus. This is seen as a historic opportunity to close the chapter on hostilities and transform the region into one characterized by good-neighborliness, stability, prosperity and peace. Although Azerbaijan’s peace initiative, after the second Karabakh war of 2020, has brought significant benefits, the process now seems stalled due to factual reasons, geopolitical contradictions and irresponsible interventions.
Armenia and Azerbaijan went through prolonged and ultimately unsuccessful mediation efforts. The currently defunct Minsk Group of the OSCE failed to reach a peaceful settlement and prevent the consequences of military aggression and the occupation of the internationally recognized territories of Azerbaijan. Currently, the important progress achieved through direct negotiations between Baku and Yerevan, such as the key joint statement of December 7, 2023, through which the two sides committed to normalize relations and reach a peace treaty, among various confidence-building measures, mutual support within COP29 as well as the progress in border delimitation show that the bilateral direct format is the most effective and promising approach to continue and conclude the negotiations.
However, the process faces obstacles. According to the position of official Baku, the territorial claims to Azerbaijan, enshrined in the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, remain a serious challenge to the achievement of sustainable and lasting peace between the two countries. The removal of the text from the constitution undermining sovereignty and territoriality
integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan depends entirely on the ability and desire of the Armenian society and authorities.
Recent calls from Washington for an immediate peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan highlight the significant geopolitical stakes. Sustainable and stable peace is strategically important in terms of transit and energy connectivity in the wider Black and Caspian Sea region, making it crucial to the common interests of countries in the region. However, not all global
players positively influence the process. France’s moves to militarize Armenia, including by deploying a military mission in Armenia and providing military aid, are worrisome given that Armenia held sovereign territories of Azerbaijan under military occupation for nearly 30 years and continues to dispute its territorial integrity.
Real peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia seems achievable, but requires the political will of regional and global powers as well as sensible and responsible actions to avoid any potential destabilizing provocations in the region.
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