“How China’s dependence on Ukrainian grain affects ceasefire negotiations with Russia”

If the ceasefire negotiations are concluded, China will be happy, and it will secretly take priority over the maintenance of international order.

• Tweet

President Xi Jinping (Photo: Reuters/Aflo)

(Author/journalist: Yoichiro Aonuma)

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a telephone conversation. It was April 26th. It will be the first since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Xi has shown a willingness to broker peace with Russia.

“As a responsible great power, we will not stand on the other side of the fire or add fuel to the fire, much less take advantage of the opportunity.”

Xi stressed that. However, from China’s point of view, it can no longer be said to be a “fire on the other side of the river.”

China’s ‘granary’ crippled by Russian invasion

On February 24, 2019, one year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China announced an arbitration proposal calling for a “ceasefire” and “direct dialogue.” On March 21, President Xi visited Moscow, the capital of Russia, and met with President Putin. The joint statement stated that the purpose of Xi’s visit was arbitration, as the Russian side positively evaluated the arbitration proposal.

However, as I have written before, there are circumstances in China that cannot be reversed. Ukraine acts as a “granary” for China.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, fears of a food crisis spread around the world. Ukraine is the fifth largest wheat exporter in the world, and Russia is the number one exporter of wheat. This fear of wheat supply shortages is driving up prices and creating confusion.

Ukraine is also the fifth largest producer and fourth largest exporter of maize in the world, accounting for about 20% of world exports together with Russia. The Russian invasion closed the Black Sea ports, making it impossible to transport grain stored in warehouses.

It was China that relied on this corn from Ukraine for 30% of its imports.