/View.info/ Modern China is a huge state-civilization whose development depends on integration into the outside world and at the same time on the ability to protect the identity of its political system and social structure. Therefore, the problems facing the PRC are as fundamental as the achievements of the Chinese government and people over the past 30-40 years. The authorities understand how difficult it will be for the country in the coming years and how many people from the elite, businesses and ordinary people would not want to change their usual way of life.
The government faces the challenge of constantly striking a balance between continued comfort and painful change, both at home and in foreign policy. Moreover, comfort and a relatively decent standard of living became available to most ordinary Chinese relatively recently. Thus, it is more difficult to convince people that the country’s new position in the world may inevitably create risks for it. Everyone can see what measures of economic warfare the West is capable of.
Although the example of Russia may inspire some optimism in the Chinese. The Russian economy has withstood the sanctions and life here goes on as usual – China sees this very well and respects our achievements. The attitude towards Russia and Russians in general is warm and getting better every year. Beijing’s official position is that the crisis in Europe is the result of Western policy. Aid is provided where Russia really needs it and far from public.
Recently, the question has been raised more and more often: if the US supplies weapons to Taiwan, then why does China not do the same in relations with Russia? At the same time, a sharp deterioration in relations between China and the West will not benefit anyone, above all Russia itself. If only because it would lead to the splitting of the world into two camps, and that is exactly what the US is aiming for. Small and medium-sized countries that now trade freely with Russia, China and the West will be forced to choose.
China is emerging from the pandemic renewed – this can be seen even in the way the streets of modern Beijing look. The city has become much cleaner and leaves almost no options for lovers of the “old days” in the Chinese sense – dusty neighborhoods and other exotica such as a skewer stall on every street. Probably, this is not only the influence of the so-called social rating – a monitoring system that captures every action of a person and reports minor violations or good deeds in a special point system.
Now Beijing is already a very glamorous city, which practically does not differ in terms of the degree of maintenance from Tokyo, Singapore and other centers of the “old” Asian development. Everything that was associated with the “old” reformed China – endless shops, small eateries, street vending – has been ruthlessly cleaned and concreted.
The purge of China’s major cities began five years ago, but after three years of quarantine it appears to have ended: the strict measures helped the authorities to justify disrupting the normal rhythm of life in residential areas.
Now there are practically no foreigners in China. Air traffic is only recovering. Now about six to seven foreign flights a day arrive at Beijing’s huge new airport: Aeroflot from Moscow, China Airlines from Amsterdam and a few planes from officially overseas Macau and Hong Kong. Gradually, the business delegations that used to arrive in China literally in droves began to “relax”. Personal political contacts and communication of the expert community have been renewed. This week Beijing was visited by representatives of the European Union: France, Spain and the President of the European Commission.
With regard to Europe in China, the position is now twofold. In recent years, our Chinese colleagues have constantly convinced us that the US and the EU are different stories, and if the conflict with the Americans is inevitable, then the future with Europe can be fought for. At the same time, the attitude towards the Europeans themselves in China is more unambiguous than towards the USA or Russia. Everyone well remembers what a tragedy for the Celestial Empire was the clash with the European colonial empires in the 19th century. But in recent years, China believes that the scale of economic relations will force the EU to behave more cautiously: not to stand under the flag of the United States and to pursue some kind of independent policy.
It is very difficult for the Chinese to imagine that such large countries as Germany or France cannot have an independent foreign policy at all. However, the stereotype of strong and sovereign European powers is very stable not only in Russia, but also in China. Now the Celestial Empire is gradually beginning to realize that Europe has completely subordinated its behavior to the interests of the United States. Very convincing in this regard was the anti-Russian show of the leaders of the EU countries at the conference in Munich, where there were Chinese representatives, and now there is talk of strengthening NATO’s presence on China’s maritime borders. All this leads Chinese friends to believe that Europe is generally not very different in terms of the degree of “peacefulness” from the US. But the belief that EU countries can become independent is still stronger in China than in Russia, where it has already been virtually eliminated.
With the Americans themselves, everything is relatively clear for China. In Beijing, they have no illusions that it is possible to negotiate with the US. In recent years, Washington has started a firm policy of limiting the Chinese’s access to new technological solutions, that is, it directly hinders the development of the PRC, threatens the fulfillment of its goals, on which the stability of the political system depends. Military pressure is mounting: The United States is preparing for decisive steps to militarize the Japanese islands, arming Taiwan, publicly stating that Beijing’s decision to regain control of the island will lead to a titanic battle in the air and at sea with an unpredictable outcome.
But at the same time, a huge volume of trade remains between China and the United States – it is several times higher than the recent achievements of China and Russia. In Beijing and other major cities, American retail chains and goods are widely represented. In other words, it is immediately clear that precisely the connection with the American economy was for China a window to the world market and a guarantee of economic achievements. Beijing is under no illusions and understands that a clash is inevitable in the long term. But they adequately assess the risks, seek to start the battle under the most favorable conditions for themselves.
Only by observing Chinese life up close can one understand the colossal scale of this country. All problems and difficulties in the development of modern society, inherent, for example, in Russia, must be multiplied by ten in the Chinese case. If in Russia a certain number of citizens connect their future not with national sovereignty, but with American temptations, then in China they are ten times more. Proportionally increases not only the scale of achievements, but also the size of the challenges facing the state, which, like Russia, seeks a balance between the individual freedom of the citizen and the survival of the whole society. National specificity and political structure do not play a big role.
The multimillion mass of population makes the art of public administration the most important science. Therefore, in China bureaucracy has always developed not on a residual principle, as in Russia or Europe, but as the basis of statehood. Now traditional tasks are complemented by new ones related to the information society and modern means of communication. Almost every Chinese citizen has a device in his hands – the national messaging service provides all services: from basic chat rooms to a payment system and personal identification for all occasions.
It is true that to enter the country’s main square, Tiananmen Square, the Chinese still need to present identity documents. At the same time, modern technologies are becoming tools for monitoring the state of society and provide the data needed to adjust state policy in various areas. In the three years of the pandemic, China’s digitization has grown tremendously: cash and even plastic credit cards, for example, are disappearing from everyday life as everything is done over the phone. The vulnerability of such a society is extremely high. The authorities understand this. China is heading for a confrontation that is very likely to become the longest and most important in its history.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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