How Big is the Risk of the Sino-Taiwan War? page all

KOMPAS.com – The Chinese government has so far still claimed Taiwan as a Chinese province, not ruling out taking it by force.

Then, what is behind the China-Taiwan relationship to get to such a point, and how big is the potential for conflict?

History of Taiwan

Reported Guardianat the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, the defeated Kuomintang government fled to the island of Taiwan.

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They established the government of the Republic of China (ROC) in exile.

On the mainland, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) founded the People’s Republic of China.

From the 1970s onwards many countries began to shift their formal relations from the ROC to Beijing, and today less than 15 world governments recognize the ROC (Taiwan) as a country.

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The CCP has never ruled Taiwan and since the end of the civil war Taiwan has enjoyed de facto independence.

Since the decades-long martial law period ended in the 1980s, Taiwan has also grown into a vibrant democracy with free elections and media.

China and Taiwan relations

Unification is the main goal of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The island’s president, Tsai Ing Wen, said Taiwan had become a sovereign nation without the need to declare independence.

But Beijing regards Taiwan’s democratically elected government as a separatist.

Also read: Chinese missiles fly over Taiwan during military drills

Risk of China versus Taiwan War

Under Xi’s rule, aggression against Taiwan has increased and analysts believe the threat of invasion is the highest in decades.

In recent years, the People’s Liberation Army has sent hundreds of warplanes to Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.

This is part of the greatly increased “grey zone” activity, which is adjacent to combat but does not meet the threshold of war.

Also read: Taiwan’s top missile official dies, found lifeless in hotel

Taiwan is also working to modernize its military and is buying large amounts of military assets and weapons from the US in hopes of deterring Xi and the CCP from taking action.

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