How Are Point Spreads Made for NFL Games? Veteran Vegas Oddsmakers Explain
Setting the point spreads for NFL games is no easy task. It requires a careful analysis of various factors and a deep understanding of the betting market. Veteran oddsmakers in Las Vegas have shared their insights into the process, shedding light on how these lines are created.
The Stakes Are High
Oddsmakers understand that their opinions hold significant weight in the betting world. If they make a mistake, it can cost their employers millions or even billions of dollars. The Super Bowl, in particular, is a high-stakes event where every point spread matters.
Setting the Right Line
Lamarr Mitchell, the director of trading at MGM Resorts and BetMGM, emphasizes the importance of setting the right line. He states, “It’s 100 percent to set the right line. If you don’t, it just becomes gambling for the house.” The goal is to create a balanced market where bettors are evenly split between both sides.
Analyzing Professional Players
Oddsmakers closely monitor the actions of professional players early in the week. These experienced bettors often take advantage of any perceived edges in the lines. By observing where these professionals place their bets, oddsmakers can gauge if they have set the right number.
Super Bowl Line Movement
Setting the point spread for the Super Bowl is an interesting exercise. Oddsmakers start projecting potential lines before the conference championship games even take place. In the case of the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs matchup, the initial projection was 49ers -3. However, after the Chiefs’ dominant performance and the 49ers’ close call, the line opened at 49ers -2.
The Influence of Public Perception
Oddsmakers also take into account public perception when setting lines. Tristan Davis, a senior trader at BetMGM, explains that recreational bettors often place bets based on the impressive performances of certain teams. In the case of the Chiefs, their victory against the Baltimore Ravens led to an overreaction in the opening spread. However, sharp bettors saw value in the 49ers, causing the line to bounce back.
The Complexity of Setting Point Spreads
Setting point spreads for NFL games is a complex task. It involves considering various factors such as power ratings, home-field advantage, injuries, and bettors’ reactions. Chris Andrews, the sports book manager at the South Point, uses power ratings as a starting point. These ratings are adjusted weekly based on team performance and other variables.
The Art of Line Movement
Oddsmakers must also be mindful of line movement throughout the week. They aim to avoid being “middled,” where they lose on both sides of a bet. Sharp bettors can cause significant line movement, and injury reports can also impact the lines. Oddsmakers must carefully track these changes and adjust accordingly.
The Importance of Learning from Mistakes
Even experienced oddsmakers like Andrews admit that mistakes can happen. They understand the need for self-criticism and continuous learning. Andrews reflects on a recent error he made in setting a line for a New York Jets-Miami Dolphins game. He acknowledges that he may have put up the line too high and emphasizes the importance of learning from such mistakes.
In conclusion, setting point spreads for NFL games is a challenging task that requires a deep understanding of the betting market. Oddsmakers carefully analyze various factors and monitor bettors’ actions to create balanced lines. The goal is to set the right number and avoid costly mistakes. With billions of dollars at stake, oddsmakers must be meticulous in their approach to ensure a fair and competitive betting market.