The Houthis’ escalating threat to shipping heralds the militarization of the Red Sea
With the entry of the French Navy alongside the American and British Navy to confront Houthi attacks in one of the most important global trade corridors, fears are rising in Yemeni circles about the militarization of the Red Sea internationally, and about the effects of the potential conflict with the pro-Iranian group on Yemeni peace efforts.
On Sunday, the French Armed Forces announced the destruction of two Houthi marches in the Red Sea that were heading towards the multi-mission frigate “Languedoc” operating in the Red Sea. Paris thus joined the American and British forces that are trying to limit themselves to confronting the Houthi threats without entering into an open confrontation with the group.
French destroyer (AFP)
While the Houthi group found in the Gaza war an opportunity to escape from its internal crisis, disrupt peace efforts, and attempt to whitewash its crimes against the Yemenis, it finally escalated its threats to target all international ships in the Red Sea that go to Israel, after it had limited the threat to ships that have a connection to Israel. .
The group, which the Yemeni government says is an Iranian tool, was able to pirate the “Galaxy Leader” ship last month, an international cargo tanker run by a Japanese company, claiming that it was an Israeli ship, and took it to the coast of Hodeidah and turned it into a shrine for its followers.
Among fears that the Houthi behavior will force the international community to change its policy towards the Yemeni crisis, Yemeni politicians question the feasibility of the recent US sanctions. They also rule out that Washington will engage in a decisive military confrontation with the group. They also rule out that the group itself will launch a large-scale attack that would cause… An actual threat to American or international forces deployed in the Red Sea.
Washington announced the imposition of sanctions on 13 individuals and entities responsible for providing tens of millions of dollars worth of foreign currency resulting from the sale and shipment of Iranian goods to the terrorist Houthi militias with the support of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Intervention serves the Houthis
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Yemeni journalist Abdullah Al-Sanami believes that France’s entry into the military confrontation line against the Houthis in the Red Sea may be in the group’s interest.
Yemenis fear that the Red Sea will turn into a theater for military confrontation (AP)
He says, “Defensive military actions in the Red Sea will further inflame the situation, because any military action in the global shipping lane affects it, and this is what the Houthis want, who promote that they are against the West (the United States, Britain, and France), which works to support Israel, and thus they found a justification for what They say it in their slogans, and I do not think that this will prevent the group from targeting ships.”
The gradual and successive Houthi escalation, including the announcement of targeting any ship to and from Israel, Al-Sanami believes will lead to the conflict in the region entering a new phase, and he believes that it is a phase that was expected according to the history of the geopolitical conflict over the geography of Yemen since ancient times.
It can be said – according to Al-Sanami – that the complexities of global events, such as the conflict in Ukraine, the China file, the American debt file, and the conflict in Palestine, all hinder any effective action against the Houthis. The journalist reads that the situation may remain as it is (bombing with a march, a threat, and a response), and this – in his opinion – will not have a significant impact, as long as the most important point in the Red Sea (Bab al-Mandab) is relatively far from the Houthis.
It is not unlikely that there will be a military conflict over this point, which it is expected that the Houthis view as a strategic goal, as they seek to exploit popular sympathy and carry out military action to control Al-Omari camp, Al-Mokha, and Mayon Island.
The Yemeni government accuses the Houthi group of preparing for a new round of war (Saba)
With the conflict in Yemen reaching the “important” stage of controlling the shipping lane in the Red Sea, Al-Sanami believes that peace efforts will be greatly affected by the events, and signs of peace may be activated, “but it is a false cover for what each party wants, given the intertwining and intersection of interests and goals.” Local parties conflicting regionally and internationally,” he said.
International threat sensing
Yemeni political analyst and journalist Ramah al-Jabri believes that the French presence in the Red Sea alongside Britain and America is confirmation of the international consensus in sensing the danger of the Houthi group, which presented itself as an Iranian arm because it accuses Yemeni interests.
Al-Jabri says: “During the years of war in Yemen, especially with the Yemeni file being taken over by envoy Martin Griffiths, and then the administration of President Biden, the Houthi group received many incentives that made it aspire to rule in Yemen, starting with dealing with it as a political party and authority, as they call it, (a fait accompli). As well as canceling its classification as a terrorist organization.
He believes that the group “has received international pampering as it continues to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity and tamper with international efforts to achieve peace without deterrent language that puts it in its true place and limits the ambitions of its financiers in Iran.”
In light of the recent escalation by the Houthis, Al-Jabri commented in his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, saying: “It seems that the international community will pay the price for its wrong policy in dealing with the Houthi group, and the Yemenis will also pay an additional price, as the Yemeni beaches and territorial waters will perhaps turn into an arena for international conflict.” ».
The Houthis exploited the Gaza war to whitewash their crimes inside Yemen (Houthi media)
However, if the Houthi threat becomes real to the point of threatening the interests of major countries, Al-Jabri believes that the international community will be forced to engage in a military operation in Yemen at least to liberate the city of Hodeidah and the western coast, all the way to the port of Midi in Hajjah Governorate, to ensure protection for maritime navigation and international trade.
This scenario, according to his assessment, may not be compatible with the current regional unwillingness to return to the path of war, as it is possible that the Yemeni parties may currently reach an agreement and a permanent truce, from which the Houthis will benefit mainly.
Al-Jabri believes that the Houthis’ benefit will lie in covering themselves with the guise of legitimacy if they become part of it in a comprehensive agreement, and escaping the international reaction to their terrorist operations, which included piracy and bombing operations in the Red Sea.
deterrent measures
The Undersecretary of the Yemeni Ministry of Information, Fayyad al-Numan, stresses deterrent measures against what he calls the terrorism of the Houthi group against Yemen, the region, and the world, and not allowing the Yemeni geography to be transformed into another terrorist den for groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda.
In his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Numan called for “abandoning media statements and diplomatic moves and starting to take a system of deterrent measures for active states in the region.”
He added, “The movements must not be limited to sanctions against Houthi figures and the parties supporting them. Rather, they must be stopped in accordance with international law and not allowed to threaten national and navigational security in the Red Sea.”
The Houthi group took advantage of the truce to enhance its military capabilities and collect money (Reuters)
Al-Numan also calls for intervention by concerned countries to confront the Houthi threat, and to strengthen international and regional cooperation to protect vital sea lanes from terrorist acts.
Undersecretary of the Ministry of Information, Fayyad al-Numan, believes that the Yemeni crisis has become an important card in the region’s file, and that the Houthi practices supported by Iran, whether inside Yemen or across Yemeni geography, have a major impact on the efforts made to revive the peace process sponsored by the United Nations.
While the Houthis were, from the beginning, the spark that ignited the war in Yemen, Al-Numan asserts that they cannot be a party to achieving a comprehensive peace.
