After a terrible start, the Astros have resurrected themselves, but will it be enough to win their third World Series in less than 10 years?
When the Houston Astros When they arrived in Mexico City at the end of April, the questions from the press to players and coaches were aimed at knowing if the team could save the season. Before sweeping the Colorado Rockieswere 7-19 and last in the West American Leagueprompting those questions even so early in the calendar. Just over four months later, Joe Espada’s team, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez y Framber Valdez is firmly at the top of its division.
Jose Altuve is the eighth-best hitter in the American League (.294 batting average). G Fiume/Getty Images
Today, it is practically assured that they will enter the playoffs, and at the beginning of September, the algorithm of Baseball Reference gives them a 12.2% chance of winning the World Series, ahead of teams like the New York Yankees o Los Angeles Dodgers. The narrative of the season has been completely turned upside down, but is Houston really a contender to win its third World Series in the last decade?
Batting, pitching, and experience
The Astros have the best collective batting in the American League (.260)and the third best in the Major Leagues, only behind the San Diego Padres (.265) y Arizona Diamondbacks (.262). Alvarez (no.4/.309), Altuve (no.8/.294) and Yainer Diaz (No. 6/. 297) are among the top 10 hitters in the league, and Alvarez has already surpassed 30 homers for the fourth consecutive season. In the past 27 games, they have been shut out just twice, turning a 1 1/2-game division deficit into a lead of as many as 4 1/2 games over the Mariners.
Editorial Selections
2 Related
There is only one team in the American League that has allowed fewer runs than the Astros, and it plays in their division. Seattle Mariners They have 535 runs against in 2024, while Houston has 577. But Seattle’s collapse in recent weeks has made this factor null in the race for the West of the American Leagueand Houston is on its way to closing out its fourth straight division championship.
They have done so largely by relying on their star starters, most notably Valdez, Ronel White y Hunter Brown. The arrival of Yusei Kikuchi from Toronto at the end of July has meant that, despite not being able to count on Justin Verlander For a good portion of the season, Houston’s pitching has not had to suffer. In the bullpen, the combination of Bryan Abreu, Tayler Scott and the fire extinguisher Josh Hader has shut out opponents on countless occasions. Hader was named Reliever of the Month in August, with nine saves.
But what perhaps separates Houston from the other AL contenders is its playoff experience. Several of the key players who were there in 2022, when the Astros won their last World Series, are still with the team two seasons later. Some, like Altuve and Alex Bregman, They have been with the team since the championship in 2017; Verlander, who was also with that team seven years ago, played a relatively short period away with the New York Mets, but then returned.
In 103 postseason games between 2015 and 2023, Altuve has a batting average of .273, with 27 home runs and 55 RBIsBregman has hit 19 homers in 97 playoff games. The numbers are a testament to how effective the Astros can be in October, starting with their leaders.
The Astros have become experts at playing in the postseason, having won the American League championship four times in the last seven seasons, and they once again look set to continue building their dynasty.
Record against winning teams and clutch factor
Astros manager Joe Espada managed to resurrect the team. AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
If there’s one thing to criticize about this version of the Astros, it’s that, despite their great recovery in recent months, they remain a completely mediocre team against the cream of the crop in the Major Leagues. Their record against winning teams, as of September 6, was 31-32, the worst mark among the six division leaders.
In a hypothetical postseason series against the Yankees, the Astros would face the team they have struggled against the most all season. The Bronx Mules have beaten the Astros in six of seven games this season. Similarly, the Yankees have beaten the Astros in six of seven games this season. Minnesota Twins have a winning record against Houston, winning four of six in the particular series. Conversely, Houston has a winning record against the Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians y Baltimore Oriolesother potential rivals in October.
On the other hand, a detail that Espada will have to fine-tune in the coming weeks is the team’s record in one-run games and in extra innings, where they have suffered all season. The Astros have a 15-24 record in one-run games, and have won just five of 14 games that have ended after the ninth inning.
In August, the Astros played 12 one-run games, finishing 6-6 in that span. They played three games that went to extra innings, winning just one. In the postseason, where the margins undoubtedly get thinner, the Astros will have to pick up on their performance in close games to continue advancing in October.
When four months ago, the Astros were on their way to sweeping the Rockies at the altitude of Mexico City, Espada responded to the press saying that he hoped the series would bring luck to his team to shake off the bad streakWhether the Astros find the formula to reach the World Series again or fall by the wayside this time, the dramatic turnaround they have made in just one season is noteworthy.
