“On the territory of the CCPHVA, one in five real estate sales concerns a Luxembourg resident buying in France, because he cannot access property there. »The Pays-Haut / Val d’Alzette com’com becomes the suburb of the Grand Duchy. For Michaël Vollot, researcher at Agape Lorraine Nord, the phenomenon is not new. But its multiple effects are growing …
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20,000 more inhabitants
The most obvious? The increase in the number of inhabitants. Of the intercos observed by the urban planning and sustainable development agency, “the CCPHVA is the area where the population is growing the fastest. Between 2012 and 2017, it gained 1.08% of inhabitants per year ”, against 0.7% for the agglomeration of Longwy, at 2e rank. In addition, “the territory has the highest rate of cross-border workers, including Germany and Belgium,” underlines Michaël Vollot. Out of 11,800 employed persons, 9,190 (78%) work in Luxembourg. Forecasts estimate them at 11,400 by 2035. According to the Alzette / Belval public planning establishment, the CCPHVA should gain more than 20,000 inhabitants over the next twenty years. It currently has 29,000 souls. The growth spurt is therefore set to last.
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Real estate bubble
However, it is accompanied by another increase: that of real estate prices. Over the period 2011-2016, these prices soared by 20 to 40% in Luxembourg, depending on the cantons. The CCPHVA came under this pressure by rebounding, with tariffs climbing 15%. And she takes the palm again, under the magnifying glass of Agape. In agency windows, this resulted in house sales varying from around € 1,500 / m² on the Meurthe-et-Moselle part of the interco, to € 1,800 / m² on the Moselle side. At the same time, the CAL posted 1,400 € / m². The goods of northern Lorraine are reaching levels such that non-border couples can no longer afford them.
Could this real estate bubble end up bursting? “There is no reason to think of a sudden collapse of Luxembourg. The country has recovered from confinement faster than all the others… ”, remarks Michaël Vollot.
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“Set of musical chairs”
The phenomenon is also valid for rental. “Rents are becoming comparable to the Thionville and Metz sectors, with around € 10 per m²”. Direct consequence: “If we compare the theoretical rent to the average income, 45% of the tenants of the CCPHVA do not have the means to rent housing in the private park …” Suddenly, either they occupy a cheaper one – and sometimes unworthy – or they spend more than a third of their income on their roof.
Last effects of this sequence: spatial segregation and social breakdown, “which we see taking place between cross-border and non-border residents,” notes Michaël Vollot. The researcher cites the case of employees on French territory leaving to settle in Spincourt.
Notary in Villerupt, Aurore Bataille-Addiego reports an increasing number of purchases in Bouligny. Others choose Nouillonpont or the surroundings of Montmédy… In this “game of musical chairs”, would the Meuse become the suburb of non-border residents of northern Lorraine?
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