If you are planning to buy a house in the near future, you might want to save time if you want to pay less.
Posted on January 28, 2021 at 5:10 p.m.
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In its most recent publication Zoom on the house, Desjardins forecasts that the average price of properties will increase by 19.4% in 2021 to reach $ 450,000. This price was $ 377,000 in 2020.
This is the average price of existing properties that will change hands in the resale market. This price is weighted according to the relative importance of each of the sub-categories (houses, condos, plexes) in the total number of transactions.
If it materializes, this jump of nearly 20% would come after a year 2020 marked by price inflation of around 16.5%. This means that the increase in the average price would approach 40% in two years. It is not easy to acquire property in such a situation.
This forecast of a 20% price increase in 2021 is also a change of course for Desjardins economists.
As recently as early December, Desjardins was instead expecting price increases to slow down. Price growth was to go down; government assistance programs being better targeted and mortgage payment holidays gradually coming to an end.
Reread our article from last December
Two months later, economist Hélène Bégin changed his mind. “The situation has evolved in two ways,” she explains in an interview. The number of properties for sale continues to decline significantly. Second, the sales / new listings ratio, a supply-demand indicator, continues to tighten. As long as the market is this tight, she says, price increases will continue to accelerate. ”
This sales-to-new listings ratio, around 85% in Quebec, remains the highest in the country among the Canadian provinces. “For the price increases to slow, it would have taken a ratio that changes course, but it is not the case,” said the senior economist of the financial cooperative.
If inflation takes off, the trading volume will hardly budge. Desjardins forecasts 115,000 transactions on the resale market in 2021, an increase of 2.2% compared to the level of activity observed the previous year.
“The limited number of new listings will slow residential sales growth this year in Quebec. However, price increases will continue to accelerate towards 20% given the low inventory of available properties. Most of the province’s markets remain clearly to the advantage of sellers, which is fueling price growth, ”the January 27 publication read.
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