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Our healthcare system has started preparing for what could be a potentially warm corona winter. Spreading patients is crucial because of the large differences in vaccination coverage.
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The Belgian hospitals are busy listing the staff that they can deploy on intensive care beds with corona patients in the coming period. They do this at the request of the Hospital & Transport Surge Capacity Committee (HTSC), the group of experts that assists healthcare in the corona crisis.
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Letter to hospitals
The expert group is preparing for the corona year, as evidenced by a new communication to hospitals, the first since June 22. “We are again seeing a slow, but fairly constant increase in admissions,” the letter said.
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The situation shows that despite the vaccinations, the infectious delta variant is difficult to tame. On Monday, 643 corona patients were again in hospital compared to 581 on Friday. More positive news is that the number of people in intensive care appears to be reaching a plateau of about 170 patients.
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That seems to indicate that the vaccines continue to work well against the most severe form of the disease. A setback is that the vaccines protect against infection and transmission less well than expected. It means that the virus continues to circulate well, with the risk of hitting the weak again and putting many people in hospital again.
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Virus Predictors
Due to the relatively low number of infections, it is difficult for virus forecasters to come up with stable scenarios. A new simulation by the group around professor of biostatistics Niel Hens (UHasselt and UAntwerp) says that it is plausible that the intensive occupation will climb to 300 to 400 by the beginning of October. Although it is reiterated that a high degree of uncertainty is attached to the forecasts.
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The occupancy in intensive care can rise to 300 to 400 at the beginning of October.
Prognosis working group-Niel Hens
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The situation makes the hospital managers switch. Most hospitals are now in phase 0. That means that they must reserve 15 percent of their intensive care capacity for covid patients. For complete care, that amounts to 300 covid beds. In their communication, the experts state that hospitals must be able to switch to the next phase within 48 hours: keeping 25 percent of their intensive capacity available for corona patients (500 beds).
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Unrest about some trends
The experts’ demarche also has to do with the unrest about some trends. Even though most hospitals are far from the alert phase, there are major local differences. Due to the low vaccination rate and residents returning from vacation infected, Brussels is the corona hotspot. With 10 percent of the inhabitants, the capital accounts for a third of admissions and patients in intensive care. Antwerp city and the province of Liège are also gradually appearing in the hospital statistics.
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In some Brussels hospitals, half of the intensive care capacity has already been taken up by corona patients. That is why the experts insist on solidarity between the hospitals.
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But that is accompanied by Flemish and Walloon grumbling. ‘It cannot be denied that there is frustration,’ says Margot Cloet of the Zorgnet-Icuro care umbrella. Everyone is already on their gums and now Flemish and Walloon hospitals threaten to become the victims of the faltering vaccination, especially in Brussels.’
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Everyone is already on their gums and now Flemish and Walloon hospitals threaten to become the victims of a faltering vaccination, especially in Brussels.
