The number of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 has skyrocketed in Southern California since Christmas, but some health officials are noticing major differences in how the latest surge in hospitals plays out compared to last winter’s devastating wave.
In Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura counties, the count of people positive for the virus grew more than 100% in the past nine days. And in Los Angeles and San Bernardino, the daily hospital census exceeded the numbers seen during the peak of infections last summer.
Some authorities still fear that hospitals may face challenges, as the highly contagious Omicron variant infects people at an unprecedented rate, according to experts. But there are signs that the crisis at several medical centers in Southern California may not be as severe as it was last year, before vaccines were widely available.
About two-thirds of the patients who tested positive at hospitals run by the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services were admitted for something other than coronavirus, according to Health Services Director Dr. Christina Ghaly.
That is completely different from what happened in previous waves, when the majority of coronavirus-positive patients were hospitalized for being carriers. This time, many “may not have known they had COVID … but they are in the hospital for something else,” Ghaly said.
During last winter’s surge, more than 80% of COVID-19 patients were in the hospital because they were experiencing a severe illness associated with the disease, according to the Department of Health Services.
“The difference now is largely due to the fact that we have a greater number of people vaccinated and boosted,” department officials wrote in a statement to The Times. “Since Ómicron is highly communicable, we emphasize once again the importance of everyone being inoculated and receiving a booster as soon as they are eligible.”
It’s unclear if this same trend is playing out across the state. The California Department of Public Health did not immediately respond on Monday, when asked how many coronavirus patients had been directly hospitalized due to COVID-19, compared to those with a secondary infection upon admission.
But if the current outlook holds, Southern California may avoid some of the worst hospitalization scenarios predicted weeks ago.
Dr. Robert Wachter, chair of the UC San Francisco Department of Medicine, maintained the cautious hope that the increase in coronavirus patients at his institution’s hospitals was stabilizing. “It is still too early to be sure and, for me, an argument to be more careful, but it is hopeful,” he tweeted. “Ómicron,” he added, “could be running into a great wall of immunity” in San Francisco.
However, that is not to say that there are no public health and safety risks from the rise in coronavirus infections. In Los Angeles County, officials said they “began to see delays in ambulance response to 911 calls due to various factors, including a decrease in staff – absent from work due to COVID-related illnesses – and ambulances that experience long waiting times to take patients to hospitals ”.
According to the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services: “People should contact their doctors to find out how to treat mild symptoms of coronavirus. You should not go to the emergency departments to be tested for COVID, but to the sites specially established for it. We urge all Los Angeles County residents to do their part to help stop the spread of COVID-19 during this latest outbreak. “
On Sunday, 1,994 people positive for the virus were admitted to hospitals in Los Angeles County, 121% more than the count seen on Christmas Day.
The county surpassed its peak of COVID-19 hospitalization during the summer on New Year’s Day, when 1,792 patients with coronavirus infections were at its medical facilities. During the summer Delta surge, people in the nation’s most populous county peaked at 1,790 on Aug. 17, according to state data.
However, the number of seriously ill patients is still much lower than last summer. As of Sunday, 278 infected with COVID-19 were in intensive care units across the county, about 40% below the August peak.
The latest totals are also a far cry from last winter, when more than 8,000 citizens with COVID-19 were admitted across the county on the worst days, and ICUs were sometimes treating more than 1,700.
Southern California has the worst COVID-19 hospitalization rate per capita in the state. Across the region, for every 100,000 inhabitants, 21 people are hospitalized with a coronavirus infection. According to experts, the worrying level is when the rate is 5 or worse.
Comparable rates are 17 in the Greater Sacramento area, 15 in the San Joaquin Valley, and 10 in the San Francisco Bay Area and rural northern California.
Within Southern California, the Inland Empire has the worst numbers, with San Bernardino County at 31 and Riverside County at 25. LA and San Diego counties have a rate of 20; that of Ventura, 18; and that of Orange, 17.
Like Los Angeles, San Bernardino County has already passed its peak of hospitalizations during the summer. As of Sunday, there were 655 people with coronavirus infections in their hospitals, 113% of the summer peak of 580 admissions.
San Diego and Ventura counties reached 98% of the number of coronavirus-positive patients seen at the peak of their summer waves. Orange County, at 92%, and Riverside County, at 88%, are also closing in on theirs.
About 87% of current hospitalized patients are not vaccinated in Orange County, figures show.
Due to the high level of local broadcasting, Ventura County officials announced that the region would be closing its buildings to the public as a precautionary measure for three weeks beginning Wednesday. Services will continue to be offered online and by appointment.
“More people are infectious and spread the virus indoors,” according to Dr. Robert Levin, Ventura’s public health officer, in a statement. “Taking these steps – limiting close contacts, wearing masks indoors to avoid becoming infected and infecting others, isolating yourself when there are symptoms, getting tested and vaccinated – can reduce the likelihood that a severe case of COVID will affect you, your family or their community ”.
Starting Monday, Newport Beach will also temporarily close its City Hall and community centers. In a statement, officials said that “all city services will continue, although some will be carried out only through virtual and delivery methods” and that they anticipate that the new protocols will be in effect until mid-January.
While the statewide patient count remains below last summer’s peak, it is also increasing rapidly. On Sunday, 6,789 coronavirus patients were hospitalized across California, an 81% increase since Christmas.
Health officials have long warned that even if Omicron infections are milder than Delta’s, significant spikes will invariably create an increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations.
However, it remains to be seen how serious it turns out to be. So far, hospitalizations have not risen as fast as coronavirus cases, perhaps as a result of the lower severity of Omicron, on average, for many people.
It is also possible that inoculations may partly explain why there is a lower rate of hospitalization. Los Angeles County Public Health Director Bárbara Ferrer estimated last month that while between 15% and 20% of coronavirus cases required hospitalization during the 2020 waves and last winter, only between the 5% and 6% of cases required hospitalization during the Delta summer surge, something that “really reflects the power of vaccines.”
It is too early to say what that percentage will be for the current outbreak. “Because some people may not be immediately hospitalized after testing positive for COVID-19, increases in inpatients generally lag behind increases in cases. As a result, it is too early to say whether there will be a change in the percentage of hospitalized cases associated with the recent spike in episodes, “the state Department of Public Health said in a statement.
However, the number of coronavirus cases set off alarms.
Los Angeles County had 23,553 new cases Saturday and 21,200 more on Sunday, well above last winter’s average high of 16,000 per day. And officials say those numbers are likely an understatement due to reporting delays over the weekend.
According to estimates from California COVID-19 computer models released Monday morning, every infected person in Los Angeles County is transmitting the virus to two others on average, more than at any time since the early months of the year. pandemic.
“We hope that by working together to implement essential public health safety measures we can remain safe, protect those we love, and keep our schools and businesses open,” Ferrer said in a statement Sunday. “During this increase, given the spread of a more infectious strain of the virus, lapses can lead to explosive transmission.”
Authorities noted that the latest increase in cases can be attributed both to the Omicron variant, which is estimated to be two to four times more transmissible than the Delta, and the rise in travel and large gatherings during the recent Christmas season.
The ultra-contagious nature of Ómicron, according to officials, increases the urgency for residents to take steps to protect themselves. These include wearing masks in closed public settings, avoiding crowded situations, and most importantly, getting vaccinated and receiving a booster dose when eligible.
To date, about 75% of all Californians have at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and 67.5% are considered fully inoculated. However, that still leaves millions to receive the antigen, including all those under the age of five, who are not yet eligible.
“We all have to do our part to really protect 2022, which doesn’t look so good for the first month anymore,” said Orange County Deputy Health Officer Dr. Regina Chinsio-Kwong. “But the reassuring part of all this is what we know: we can take basic preventive measures for ourselves and our families.”
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