At the moment, however, the bellicose rhetoric has subsided somewhat and hopes for diplomatic solutions are emerging.
The main thing is that the attempt to restore Bazum’s power with the help of foreign forces creates the threat of a large-scale regional war, since the Niger junta does not lack its supporters, which may end up with the involvement of more than ten countries – from Algeria to Nigeria – in the war. The population of these countries is similar to the population of united Europe, but how the course of the conflict may unfold is frankly uncertain. Among them, there are fears that the war will lead to an increase in internal political instability in a number of countries in the region.
It is precisely the fear of widening internal conflicts that has reduced the initially bellicose sentiments of Nigeria, which is important to the region. Nigeria’s main problem is radical Islamism, but in the event of a war with Niger, the country is also threatened by separatists from Biafra (the same described by Frederick Forsyth), as well as Muslim-Hausa (the country’s largest ethnic community) riots. The Hausas are the largest ethnic community in Niger as well and categorically do not want to go to war with each other.
Chad, France’s main point of support in the region, has also announced its withdrawal from intervention. The officials of this country make no secret of their fear of riots or coup d’états against France in the event of war. Without Nigeria and Chad, the restoration of Bazuma’s power in Niger is not realistic, as the military potential of the other pro-French countries in the region is insufficient and they are also worried about possible unrest.
In general, there is a suspicion that the attempt to reinstate Bazuma will end not in a quick and victorious war, but in bloodshed, streams of refugees towards Europe and a dramatic decline in Western influence in the region, which China and Russia will not hesitate to take advantage of. It is thought that the visit of the US First Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland to Niger with the aim of reaching compromises or at least preventing the influence of Western opponents from increasing in the country can be explained by the awareness of the potential consequences.
The question of the effectiveness of this mission is debatable, however, there is an axiom in place – while the diplomats are talking, the cannons are silent – which still gives hope that it will be possible to avoid a large-scale regional war.
2023-08-09 03:21:16
#Diplomats #cannons
