Hong Kong stocks rose 2%, offshore RMB rose above the 7.17 mark | Anue Juheng – Hong Kong stocks

offshoreRMBThe exchange rate against the U.S. dollar rose aboveRMB 7.17 yuan mark, up nearly 470 points, onshoreRMBSynchronous appreciation.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2% intraday on Monday, and the Hang Seng Index rose 1.6%. The three major indexes of the A-share market also rose.

Fiona Lim, senior foreign exchange analyst at Malayan Banking, said that like most Asian currencies,RMBThe exchange rate may have passed a turning point.Although China’s economic weakness has led toRMBFacing some downward pressure, the policy differences between the central banks of the United States and China have also given rise toRMBBringing very obvious cyclical pressure.

Guojin Securities believes that the rapid weakening of the U.S. dollar isRMBThe direct driver of exchange rate appreciation.dollar indexIt has fallen sharply since late October and is approaching the 100 mark. Monday 9:30 Taiwan time,dollar indexreported 103.886.

The fall in the dollar is the result of three factors: the easing of supply-side shocks to U.S. debt, weak economic data, and easing of speculative disturbances. Guojin Securities wrote in the report:

First, the supply-side shock to U.S. debt has eased. The US Treasury Department expects net debt issuance to fall to US$776 billion, US$76 billion less than its July estimate.

Second, economic data are weak and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dovish attitude; the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Non-Farm Employment Report, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and other data released successively in November were not as good as market expectations. Market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are gradually rising.

Third, speculative disturbances have eased, and non-commercial short positions in U.S. debt have dropped significantly.

Monarch Securities said,RMBBehind the appreciation, in addition to the external support of the expected end of the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle, there is also the central parity.The central parity rate serves as a “stabilizer” for the foreign exchange market and is shorting offshoreRMBIn the context of cost reduction, theRMBForm strong support.

According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center,RMBThe central parity rate against the US dollar increased by 116 points to 7.1612 yuan, setting a record since August.

Looking forward to the market outlook, Huaan Securities believes that this round ofRMBAlthough the factors of exchange rate depreciation have been alleviated, the conditions for reversal have not yet been seen, and we still need to wait for all conditions to be in place.

Zheng Xiaoxia, an analyst at Huaan Securities, said that the conditions for exchange rate reversal include the following points:

First, the U.S. economy has yet to show signs of stalling.

Second, although the Fed will no longer raise interest rates, central bank officials still maintain policy interest rates at a high level, and the possibility of cutting interest rates in the short term is low.

Third, China’s economic growth rate in the third quarter reached 4.9%. Although it is better than market expectations, the domestic economy will not recover strongly. This year’s growth rate will be difficult to rise above 5.5%, which cannot be sustained.RMBSubstantial appreciation.